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Daily Outlook - 20 DECEMBER 2011 (02:30GMT)

Anthony Darvall

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY 20th December 2011

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks in Asia tumbled on news that the North Korea leader had died as this has created a leadership vacuum that could destabilize the region. December NAHB Housing Market index rose to 21 vs. 19 previously. Stocks closed on a weak note reversing early gains in the US on concerns the US payroll tax cuts will not be extended.  In US stocks, DJIA -100 points closing at 11766, S&P -14 points closing at 1205 and NASDAQ -32 points closing at 2523. Looking ahead, November Housing starts forecast at 0.635mln vs. 0.628mln previously.

Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) the Euro was extremely contained with a dip below 1.3000 in Asia on the North Korea news reversed in Europe. A daily range on only 60 pips us extremely tight given the debt crisis and highlights the holiday period we have entered. The outlook is mixed with the consolidation potentially leading to a topside 1.3080 test. A lot the negative news is priced in and unless a shock comes to the market like a downgrade of France then any good news could spark a short covering rally. Looking ahead, ECB President Speaks. December German IFO forecast at 106 vs. 106.6 previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

 The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY broke above Y78 as the North Korea news broke with Japan a close neighbor and potential target in any threat by a new North Korean leader flexing his countries military might. The market was unable to hold the gains however falling back as risk aversion hit the crosses dragging the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY lower. The market is still grinding higher however and could break to the topside as longer term shorts lose patience.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was the worst hit currency from the risk aversion in the markets yesterday closing below 0.9900. The RBA minutes released in early Asia did offer some reprieve however and most analysts are calling for range trading over the holiday period in thin markets. AUD/JPY is finding solid support at Y77 and is a closely watch cross for the major.

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2867

1.2946

1.3005

1.3065

1.3237

USD/JPY

76.84

77.49

77.95

78.29

78.98

GBP/USD

1.5272

1.5409

1.5520

1.5662

1.5735

AUD/USD

0.9833

0.9920

0.9930

1.0031

1.0225

XAU/USD

1500.00

1563

1596

1622

1677

OIL/USD

91.00

 

92.50

 94.60

95.00

96.00

Euro – 1.3005                             

Initial support at 1.2946 (Dec 14 low) followed by 1.2867 (Jan 10 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3065 (Dec 14 high) followed by 1.3237 (Dec 5 high)

 

Yen – 77.95

Initial support is located at 77.49 (Dec 9 low) followed by 76.84 (Nov 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 78.29 (Nov 29 high) followed by 78.42 (Nov 2 high).

Pound – 1.5520                                                                             

Initial support at 1.5409 (Dec 14 low) followed by 1.5272 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5662 (Dec 12 high) followed by 1.5735 (Dec 9 high).

 

Australian Dollar – 0.9930

Initial support at 0.9920 (Dec 12 high) followed by the 0.9833 (76.4% retrace of 0.9664-1.0380). Initial resistance is now at 1.0031 (Dec 13 low) followed by 1.0225 (Dec 9 high).

Gold – 1596

Initial support at 1563 (Dec 14 high) followed by 1500 (Oct 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1622 (Dec 13 low) followed by 1677 (Dec 13 high).

 

Oil – 94.60

Initial support at 92.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 91.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 95.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 96.00 (Intraday Resistance).

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