Daily outlook - 17th May 2012 (00:30GMT)

Anthony Darvall

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY 17th May 2012

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk off selling continued into Europe yesterday but support was found and we saw good rebounds in most markets from Gold to the Euro. US data was strong with April Industrial Production rising 1.1% vs. -0.6% previously m/m. US Stocks closed lower but only marginally. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 365k vs. 367k previously. Also May Philly Fed forecast at 10 vs. 8.5.

Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD reversed from year lows under 1.2700 as the fear of Greece leaving the Eurozone subsided and profit taking lifted the major back to 1.2750 but is still under downside pressure. The G8 meet on the weekend and the EU Debt crisis will be high on the agenda. A temporary Greek PM and caretaker government have been announced while we wait for next month’s elections.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY was well supported yesterday both on Dollar demand and rumors in the market the MOF is looking to possibly intervene again. Yen Crosses are heavily oversold and any large bounce in these pairs will help the USD/JPY rally.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD rebounded aggressively from the 0.9870 to 0.9970 and is potentially looking to rally for a second day towards the key 1.000 level. AUD/JPY is a source of support back above Y80 and in demand from Japanese investors.

 

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2624

1.2649

1.2735

1.2869

1.2958

USD/JPY

79.53

79.64

80.25

80.61

80.88

GBP/USD

1.5805

1.5870

1.5920

1.6000

1.6154

AUD/USD

0.9742

0.9861

0.9930

1.0000

1.0077

XAU/USD

1500.00

1522

1544

1564

1585

OIL/USD

91.00

92.50

93.00

95.00

96.50

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