Daily outlook - 2nd August 2012 (00:30GMT)

Anthony Darvall

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY 2nd August 2012

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the first of three big risk events this week overnight with the US FOMC Meeting resulting in no change to the US interest rates. The FED kept rates at 0.25% and the USD immediately rallied as traders read the statement and noted that the no new hints of QE3. The door is still open for more stimulus but it will require a further deterioration of US economic data. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 370k vs. 353k. June Factory Order June forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.7%.  

 

Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) the FOMC saw the EUR/USD drop to 1.2220 but so far in Asian trade we are drifting back higher ahead of the main risk event this week in the ECB meeting tonight. ECB President Draghi last week highlighted to the market something big was coming and so are expecting something substantial to be announced tonight. Failure will see 1.2000 tested and the bears take back control.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) shot higher after the FOMC decision not to increase QE in the US but the gains were capped at Y78.50 and we are under pressure in Asia again as the USD strength failed to flow over from the US session. EUR/JPY will be in play at the ECB meeting tonight.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD rallied back above 1.0500 and hit day highs at 1.0540 before being reversed sharply after the FOMC to below 1.0500. The Asian market sold as well to 1.0440 but we are rallying back towards 1.0500 after retail sales and trade balance in June both beat expectations. The AUD/USD will take its cue from the stock market’s reaction to the ECB tonight and positivity may see new highs towards 1.0600 and year highs 1.0700.

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2170

1.2220

1.2250

1.2390

1.2440

USD/JPY

77.50

77.90

78.50

78.65

78.80

GBP/USD

1.5450

1.5500

1.5525

1.5700

1.5830

AUD/USD

1.0300

1.0380

1.0480

1.0540

1.0580

XAU/USD

1590.00

1598

1601

1611

1630

OIL/USD

87.00

 

88.00

88.80

89.50

90.00

Back to Daily Currency Market - Easy Forex