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Daily outlook – 19th June 2012 (00:30GMT)

June 19, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the positive feel for the EUR/USD after the Greek elections failed to hold even the European trading session as Spanish Debt continued to trade above the key 7% level. The 7% level is seen a rate that countries can no longer finance government debt at a sustainable pace. The G20 meetings and have offered token amounts to increase the IMF warchest but markets are looking for the ECB to provide real short term support. Looking ahead, May Housing starts are forecast at 0.72mn vs. 0.717mn previously. Also May Building permits forecast at 0.728mn vs. 0.723mn previously. G20 meetings also continuing today.

Technicals:

The Euro (EUR) traded in a 200 pip range from 1.2750 to 1.2550 with the failure of the Spanish bonds to drop back from fresh debt crisis highs. The market is hoping some sort of ECB action will be able to put a more permanent lid on the crisis but the political climate in EU powerhouse Germany is making it hard for fresh ideas to gain traction. Indeed Chancellor Merkal has warned Greece that it will not get easier terms for bailout funds.

Crosses:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY was dragged lower by heavy EUR/JPY selling and ended under the Y79 level with the chance of QE3 not entirely off the table at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting given the ongoing European debt crisis. No change in FOMC policy may enable the USD/JPY to test Y80.

Looking Ahead:

Australian Dollar (AUD) was able to hold onto most of the gains from the Greece election rally in Asia yesterday with traders selling the EUR/AUD rather then selling AUD/USD when the EUR/USD fell so heavily. UPDATE RBA minutes suggest future rate cuts are less likely as local economic data remains strong and the recent cuts were mainly to protect from the European Crisis downside risks.

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