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Daily outlook – 3rd September 2012 (00:30GMT)

September 3, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Bernanke Speech failed to inspire the markets with the FED Chief supporting more action by the central bank but failing to outline the specific timeline. The market sold stocks initially but then over the day we saw steady buying in the US session as analysts commented that QE3 was still on the cards for the September meeting. Looking ahead, Labor Day Holiday in the US.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD broke above 1.2600 before the Bernanke Speech and then reversed sharply as no announcement was made. The market was still keen to buy on the dip however and optimism is growing that the ECB will announce new measures at Thursday’s meeting to support the Euro. Downgrades to Spanish states and banks have had little impact with ratings fatigue setting in after so many downgrades.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY was under pressure after the FED Speech with expectations of action at the FOMC September 14 still very likely. Support has been seen at Y78.20 and there is a lot of buyers between here and Y77.90. AUD/JPY selling is adding to the downside pressure in the Asian session.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD broadly tracked the Euro on Friday up in the US session and holding on to these gains with stock markets remaining elevated. Looking ahead, August UK PMI Manufacturing forecast at 46 vs. 45.4 previously.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD continued to slump on Friday to fresh lows at near 1.0280 before bouncing with the EUR/USD into the Bernanke Speech. The price action was capped at 1.0350 and we are under pressure again in Asia Monday as Chinese PMI fell under 50 over the weekend to 49.2 in August. UPDATE Australian July Retail Sales fell -0.8% vs. +0.3% forecast m/m.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was volatile falling to $1650 before reversing to $1690 new highs for the rally on the QE3 still happening in September comments from analysts. OIL/USD tracked stocks higher and nearly tested $97 at the height of the rally.

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2493

1.2515

1.2580

1.2581

1.2608

USD/JPY

77.90

78.16

78.30

78.79

79.14

GBP/USD

1.5754

1.5795

1.5870

1.5899

1.5933

AUD/USD

1.0215

1.0255

1.0270

1.0355

1.0399

XAU/USD

1650.00

1666

1690

1700

1711

OIL/USD

94.50

95.00

96.20

97.00

98.00

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