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Daily outlook – 8th May 2012 (00:30GMT)

May 8, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the markets were under pressure during the Asian session yesterday but the European traders took the weekend election news with more positively and we saw a short covering rally back to Friday levels on most pairs. Stocks in the US were almost positive by the end of the session as March consumer Credit soared 22.4bn on increasing student and car loans. Looking ahead, May IBD Economic Optimism Indicator previously at 49.3.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD opened under 1.3000 but we saw the level retaken going into Europe and we moved back to 1.3050 by the close. The Outlook is mixed but the EUR/USD is still showing signs of resilience in the face of so many negative factors. The Spanish and Italian bond markets are still closely watched for indications on how the Debt crisis is evolving.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY is being very quiet just under Y80 with risk aversion early in Asia reversed later on but not affecting the major only the Crosses. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are both well positioned to bounce if things improve

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was stronger than most even throughout the stock plunge on Friday and was able to retest 1.6200. The EUR/GBP is hovering near 0.8060 and is in striking distance of the 0.8000 in coming sessions if more Euro negativity enters the market. Looking ahead, ECB President Draghi speaks.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the range break to the downside was in danger of reversing yesterday with the market rallying from 1.0120 to 1.0220 in the European/US session. The outlook is for more negativity but there is expected to be two-way action on most days even if we enter a downtrend. Looking ahead, March Trade Balance forecast at -1400mn vs. -480mn previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) the XAU/USD was the in a tight range between $1640 and $1635 for most of the day waiting for inspiration. OIL/USD bounced to 98.20 as the selling subsided and bargain hunters entered the market after a two day $8 a barrel selloff.

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2700

1.2950

1.3055

1.3080

1.3130

USD/JPY

79.53

79.64

79.90

80.61

81.45

GBP/USD

1.6077

1.6100

1.6185

1.6334

1.6400

AUD/USD

1.0000

1.0080

1.0210

1.0230

1.0350

XAU/USD

1600.00

1630

1638

1664

1683

OIL/USD

95.00

96.50

98.10

98.50

100.00

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