AUD Trading Outlook
We picked the 100 pip range yesterday but got the levels wrong by 20 pips. More of the same today, just adjust my levels by 20 J. Support should be strong near .9525 but it is Friday and we often get some risk-off moves during Asian trade, so we may indeed get a modest sell-off; I’m picking .9535/.9635 as the range.
Picking the daily range will be the tricky part. I expect to see a downside test first, possibly as low as .9550 before stability returns and we could see the pair back near .9650 especially if AUD/JPY buyers return.
It looks like a day of range trading is likely, roughly between .9630/.9730. The short-term bullish trend is strong but heavy technical resistance levels are likely to slow it down a lot.
We can expect another quiet session I’m afraid but I am starting to turn slightly bearish on the AUD in the very short term. It’s running out of momentum against the EUR and the JPY so selling intraday rallies is a reasonable strategy.
I’m still in dip-buying mode but with resistance levels looming against the EUR, JPY and USD, we may indeed get a dip over the next 3 to 4 sessions. I’d play .9635/.9715 on the wide during today’s Asian session.
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