AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD enjoyed a relief rally after being under pressure for most of the week. Strong US stocks and a weak USD is supporting for now but on its own the AUD has lost a lot of support recently given the change in interest rate outlooks. UPDATE BOJ Hold at 0.1% with no new stimulus.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD selloff continued but support was found at 1.0200 and we spent most of the day at the level. August Trade Balance blew out to a -2bn deficit vs. -700mn forecast. Support is seen at 1.0165 the low from September. UPDATE August Retail Sales forecast at 0.2% vs. -0.8% previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) The AUD/USD was crushed lower for most of the day after the Central bank surprised most economists by cutting its interest rate to 3.25% vs. 3.5% previously. Citing China’s slowdown and ongoing global uncertainty and EU issues the RBA thought it prudent to cut with most now seeing them following up with a 0.25% cut in November. Looking ahead, August Trade Balance forecast at -700mn vs. -556mn previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is another currency getting a lot of attention overnight with the RBA today and many expect them to cut rates to help support a faltering economy. The AUD/USD bounced off 1.0330 supports in Asia yesterday but failed at 1.0400 and is in a holding pattern waiting for the RBA announcement. A hold decision should allow the Aussie to retest 1.0400 and a continuation of the recent range trading seen between 1.0300-1.0600. Looking ahead, RBA Interest Rate Meeting forecast to hold at 3.5%.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is following the stock markets and the commodities so we had a negative day on Friday as US equities fell hard. The general China slowdown fears are always lurking in the background and makes it easy to sell on rallies. The RBA meet tomorrow and the consensus is that they are going to cut interest rates by 0.25%. Update September Chinese PMI Manufacturing at 49.8.
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