AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD broke briefly above 1.0500 overnight but we find ourselves back down at 1.0480 once again with the EUR/USD slumping. The slow grind higher will require EUR/USD support to get back above the 1.0500. Australian November Jobs data was solid with +13.9k and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.2% vs. 5.5% previously. Update October Trade Balance at -2088mn vs. -1456mn previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD was quiet at 1.0480 but we found strong resistance here and pulled back to 1.0450 as the Dollar fought back in the US session. The RBA rate cut and weak retail data earlier in the week has been overlooked so far but we have November Employment Data out today that should move the Aussie more aggressively. Q3 GDP was at expectations at 0.5% vs. 0.6% previously. Looking ahead, November Employment Change forecast at 0 vs. 10.7k. November Unemployment Rate forecast at 5.5% vs. 5.4%.
Australian Dollar (AUD) The AUD/USD was in play yesterday with a cut by the central bank (RBA) of 0.25% to bring the Interest rate to 3.0%. The rates are now as low as the 2009 Crisis levels but the AUD/USD was not sold aggressively in fact we have seen buyers yesterday push the commodity pair to fresh month highs. UPDATE Australian Q3 GDP at 0.5% vs. 0.6% previously Q/Q.
Australian Dollar (AUD) some weak November retail sales data yesterday saw AUD/USD back below 1.0400 but this was only temporary and we quickly moved back to 1.0430 ahead of the RBA decision today. The RBA is forecast to cut by 0.25% but this is widely publicized so the reaction should be limited. Looking ahead, RBA forecast to cut from 3.25% to 3.0%.
Australian Dollar (AUD)remained supported on dips so far with AUD/USD falling from 1.0480 to 1.0410 Friday as Gold fell sharply and long traders took profit ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting which is now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales forecast 0.4% vs. 0.5%
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