AUD Trading Outlook


 
17.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012 17.8.2012-13.8.2012 10.8.2012-6.8.2012 3.8.2012-30.7.2012 27.7.2012-23.7.2012 20.7.2012-16.7.2012 13.7.2012-9.7.2012 6.7.2012-2.7.2012 29.6.2012-26.6.2012 22.6.2012-18.6.2012 14.6.2012-11.6.2012 8.6.2012-4.6.2012 1.6.2012-28.5.2012

9th November

Australian Dollar (AUD) was strong after Employment change in October beat expectations at +20k vs. +15k forecast. AUD/USD broke above 1.0400 and hit stops flying to 1.0445 before easing back in the US session. Update China October CPI at 1.7% vs. 1.9% previously.

8th November

Australian Dollar (AUD). Was well supported even with the sharp drop in equities as the afterglow of the RBA decision to hold at 3.25% continued to support. Most crosses are in uptrends and Chinese soft landing hopes are improving. Update October Employment forecast at 18.7k vs. 14.5k previously.

 

7th November

Australian Dollar (AUD) the RBA held at 3.25% in a shock to the market where most economists had forecasted a 0.25% rate cut. The RBA statement gave reasons for them holding including a soft landing for China and higher than forecast inflation. Looking ahead, October Unemployment Change forecast at 14.5k. October Australian Unemployment Rate forecast at 5.5% vs. 5.4% previously.

 

6th November

Australian Dollar (AUD) the main currency in play today with the central bank of Australia (RBA) meeting and forecast to cut by 0.25%. It is a very close call though and a hold would not be a major surprise to the market. Strong US stocks and local Australian Data helped underpin the AUD/USD and we moved back to 1.0380. September Retail Sales came in strong at 0.5% vs. 0.4% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, RBA Rate Decision forecast at 3% vs. 3.25%.

5th November

Australian Dollar (AUD) the commodity led US stock selloff hit the Aussie the hardest on Friday with the commodity linked currency reversing from week highs at 1.0400 to test 1.0330 support. The RBA meets tomorrow and is the main event risk this week for the Aussie with a rate cut still the favored result. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at 1647mn vs. 2027mn. Also September Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.2% previously.


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