AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) was strong after Employment change in October beat expectations at +20k vs. +15k forecast. AUD/USD broke above 1.0400 and hit stops flying to 1.0445 before easing back in the US session. Update China October CPI at 1.7% vs. 1.9% previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD). Was well supported even with the sharp drop in equities as the afterglow of the RBA decision to hold at 3.25% continued to support. Most crosses are in uptrends and Chinese soft landing hopes are improving. Update October Employment forecast at 18.7k vs. 14.5k previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the RBA held at 3.25% in a shock to the market where most economists had forecasted a 0.25% rate cut. The RBA statement gave reasons for them holding including a soft landing for China and higher than forecast inflation. Looking ahead, October Unemployment Change forecast at 14.5k. October Australian Unemployment Rate forecast at 5.5% vs. 5.4% previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the main currency in play today with the central bank of Australia (RBA) meeting and forecast to cut by 0.25%. It is a very close call though and a hold would not be a major surprise to the market. Strong US stocks and local Australian Data helped underpin the AUD/USD and we moved back to 1.0380. September Retail Sales came in strong at 0.5% vs. 0.4% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, RBA Rate Decision forecast at 3% vs. 3.25%.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the commodity led US stock selloff hit the Aussie the hardest on Friday with the commodity linked currency reversing from week highs at 1.0400 to test 1.0330 support. The RBA meets tomorrow and is the main event risk this week for the Aussie with a rate cut still the favored result. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at 1647mn vs. 2027mn. Also September Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.2% previously.
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