AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) the market was caught short on the AUD yesterday and we saw a large move higher in the US session as stock markets surged. Resistance was found at 1.0300 and we have pulled back slightly so far in Asia but remaining strong. Update July Trade Balance at -556m vs -300m forecast at July Exports fell -3%.
Australian Dollar (AUD) support was found under 1.0170 overnight and we bounced back above 1.0200. Q2 GDP was slightly worse than expected yesterday at 0.6% vs. 0.7% previously. August Unemployment was mixed with a fall -8k jobs but also a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. The Aussie will follow the stock market’s reaction to the ECB tonight. Looking ahead, Trade Balance forecast at -300mn vs. 9mn previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the market continued to sell into any AUD/USD strength with a post RBA rally yesterday leading to a heavy sell off down to 1.0200. The RBA noted some caution about China and recent weak data but also that the Australian economy was expected to grow and that inflation was forecast at the desired level. Also they noted they are waiting to see the effects of the recent rate cuts on the economy before considering further cuts. UPDATE Australian Q2 GDP at 0.6% vs. 0.7% forecast Q/Q.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie hit fresh downtrend lows near 1.0240 before a small rally with the EUR/USD strength helped the AUD/USD range trade for the rest of the day. The RBA meet today and although they are not expected to cut they may be dovish as the recent month has seen concerns regarding China’s slowdown intensify. Looking ahead, RBA Meeting forecast to hold at 3.5% with focus on the Statement.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD continued to slump on Friday to fresh lows at near 1.0280 before bouncing with the EUR/USD into the Bernanke Speech. The price action was capped at 1.0350 and we are under pressure again in Asia Monday as Chinese PMI fell under 50 over the weekend to 49.2 in August. UPDATE Australian July Retail Sales fell -0.8% vs. +0.3% forecast m/m.
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