AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD relief rally on the back of very strong jobs data was short lived and the downtrend has regained control focusing on 1.0000 in Asia today. The JPMorgan story has already hit the market and only the Chinese data can save the Aussie now. Looking ahead, April Chinese PPI forecast at -0.6% vs. -0.3% previously y/y. April Chinese CPI forecast at 3.3% vs. 3.6% y/y. April Chinese Industrial Output forecast at 12 vs. 11.9 previously. April Retail Sales forecast at 15.2 vs. 15.2% y/y.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD tested 1.000 but the level held and in Asia today we have seen a large rally after stronger than expected April Jobs data. UPDATE April Employment Change at 15.5k vs. -5.5k forecast. April Unemployment Rate at 4.9% vs. 5.3% forecast.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is being sold aggressively in the last 24 hours with the stock markets and the Greece debacle giving traders the green light. The RBA rate cuts is likely to see the AUD/USD test 1.000 and we could see this as soon as today given the heavy sales in Asia.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the range break to the downside was in danger of reversing yesterday with the market rallying from 1.0120 to 1.0220 in the European/US session. The outlook is for more negativity but there is expected to be two-way action on most days even if we enter a downtrend. Looking ahead, March Trade Balance forecast at -1400mn vs. -480mn previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD broke the two month range to the downside on Friday breaking below 1.0200 and is targeting party at 1.0000 in coming sessions. Most are looking to sell on rallies with stocks and the EUR/USD also under pressure and the RBA likely to continue cutting rates in coming meetings. UPDATE April Retail Sales +0.9 vs. 0.3% previously.
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