AUD Trading Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weak Australian Job numbers in November with a -6k change vs. +10k forecast sent the AUD/USD lower in Asia but optimism in Europe saw the risk pair rally to 1.0380 before once again reversing aggressively on the ECB disappointment. The outlook is closely linked to the stock market but also Chinese data which is released today and could further suggest that the Asian giant is slowing down. Looking ahead, Chinese CPI forecast at 4.4% vs. 5.5% y/y previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied on solid GDP numbers for the Q3 coming at 1.0% Q/Q which is one of the highest in the developed world supported by strong mining exports to China. The AUD/USD tested 1.0300 in the US session but found solid resistance and went very quiet ahead of tonight’s ECB risk event. Looking ahead, November Unemployment Change forecast at 10.6k vs. 10k previously. Unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 5.2%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold aggressively after the central bank RBA cut rates to 4.25% vs. 4.5% previously. The market found support under 1.0200 and bounced back in Europe with stock markets rallying. The outlook is mixed with the Chinese story darkening and the Eurozone crisis still unresolved. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 1.0% vs. 1.2% previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD traded between 1.0200 and 1.0300 but ended at 1.0250 as the market was steady ahead of the RBA meeting today. The outlook is mixed with most looking for a cut but a very real chance the RBA hold as recent data has not been negative. The central bank may look to the recent slowing Chinese economy to justify the rate cut however as well as the ongoing EU uncertainty. Looking ahead, RBA Rate announcement forecast at 4.25% vs. 4.5%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie fell back with US stocks on Friday post NFP but the market is still looking to buy the AUD/USD on dips as the recovery in global risk appetite continues. AUD/JPY is providing plenty of support as well with the market now testing Y80 resistance. The RBA meets tomorrow and is expected to cut rates.
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