AUD Trading Outlook


 
23.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012 17.8.2012-13.8.2012 10.8.2012-6.8.2012 3.8.2012-30.7.2012 27.7.2012-23.7.2012 20.7.2012-16.7.2012 13.7.2012-9.7.2012 6.7.2012-2.7.2012 29.6.2012-26.6.2012 22.6.2012-18.6.2012 14.6.2012-11.6.2012 8.6.2012-4.6.2012

7th September

Australian Dollar (AUD) the market was caught short on the AUD yesterday and we saw a large move higher in the US session as stock markets surged. Resistance was found at 1.0300 and we have pulled back slightly so far in Asia but remaining strong. Update July Trade Balance at -556m vs -300m forecast at July Exports fell -3%.

6th September

Australian Dollar (AUD) support was found under 1.0170 overnight and we bounced back above 1.0200. Q2 GDP was slightly worse than expected yesterday at 0.6% vs. 0.7% previously. August Unemployment was mixed with a fall -8k jobs but also a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. The Aussie will follow the stock market’s reaction to the ECB tonight. Looking ahead, Trade Balance forecast at -300mn vs. 9mn previously.

5th September

Australian Dollar (AUD) the market continued to sell into any AUD/USD strength with a post RBA rally yesterday leading to a heavy sell off down to 1.0200. The RBA noted some caution about China and recent weak data but also that the Australian economy was expected to grow and that inflation was forecast at the desired level. Also they noted they are waiting to see the effects of the recent rate cuts on the economy before considering further cuts. UPDATE Australian Q2 GDP at 0.6% vs. 0.7% forecast Q/Q.

4th September

Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie hit fresh downtrend lows near 1.0240 before a small rally with the EUR/USD strength helped the AUD/USD range trade for the rest of the day. The RBA meet today and although they are not expected to cut they may be dovish as the recent month has seen concerns regarding China’s slowdown intensify. Looking ahead, RBA Meeting forecast to hold at 3.5% with focus on the Statement. 

3rd September

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD continued to slump on Friday to fresh lows at near 1.0280 before bouncing with the EUR/USD into the Bernanke Speech. The price action was capped at 1.0350 and we are under pressure again in Asia Monday as Chinese PMI fell under 50 over the weekend to 49.2 in August. UPDATE Australian July Retail Sales fell -0.8% vs. +0.3% forecast m/m.


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