AUD Trading Outlook
INTRADAY CONCLUSION: I expect to see AUD/USD higher again before the weekend but we could see a morning dip, so keep stops well below .9030. Bears need to be patient in my view, but may get another chance to sell close to .9300 if more trailing stops go off; so be patient.
INTRADAY CONCLUSION: You know my views by now, I think the AUD/USD is way oversold and due for a bounce but the trend remains bearish so we must wait for some bullish reversal signals. A break above .9050 would confirm such an event. Bears can feel reasonably confident selling near .9000 with tightish stops in the hope of further downside. AUD/JPY must also be watched very closely as much of the big flows come from there.
INTRADAY CONCLUSION: I always think it’s best to wait until after the big risk event before trading, rather than guessing which way the market will go. See how the market reacts and then make a trading decision; if resistance at .9000 seems to be holding, then you can try selling with stops above .9050. The downside is a bit trickier given the strong downtrend, so if short-term support levels cannot hold, bulls should wait for levels closer to .8770.
INTRADAY CONCLUSION: The crosses overall still look quite heavy in the AUD but the relief rally in AUD/NZD might cause a similar reaction across other pairs in such a heavily oversold market. The bear trend however remains very strong and it’s difficult to see why they should panic with the RBA tomorrow likely to cut rates? I’d play as close as possible to the edges of ranges in AUD/USD, .8850/.9000 on the wide.
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