AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is continuing to slide with little bounce as the technical remain bearish and we move further from the stable 1.030-1.06 range that had held for the past few months. Parity is the obvious target for the bears while support is coming through the AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD liquidations seen overnight. Weak fulltime employment numbers were hidden in a strong headline figure yesterday for January jobs and add to further calls for a rate cut in March. Looking ahead, Chinese Trade Balance forecast at 22bn vs. 31bn previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD broke through major technical support and out of its long term 1.0360-1.0620 range leading to many sell recommendations from FX technical houses and investment banks. The outlook is not clear however as demand from reserve managers from around the world continues to be found at each significant level. Last night we found solid support at 1.0300 and have so far failed to break this level in Asia on its third attempt. Update January Employment Change at 10.4k vs. 5k forecast.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD was almost in another world yesterday spending most of the day grinding lower to major range support at 1.0370. The catalyst was the RBA holding at 3.0% but stating that there was room for more rate cuts if needed because was well anchored for the foreseeable future. Also noted in the statement was a comment on the looming end to the mining investment boom. Looking ahead, January Retail Sales forecast 0.3% vs. -0.1% previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD has had an interesting 23 hours trade able to defy the usual risk off selling flows as EUR/AUD liquidations help support but then pummeled in Asia after the RBA left the door open for further cuts in a surprising neutral statement after quite strong local economic data and strong performance of the local share market since the RBA last met. UPDATE Australian RBA hold rates at 3.0%.
Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated near 1.0400 on Friday unable to rally but at least the selling has subsided for now. The RBA is ahead on Tuesday and they are not expected to cut but traders will be watching the commentary closely for any hints about the next move or concern about the elevated AUD price. UPDATE Australian Building Permits at -4.4% vs. 1.1% previously.
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