AUD Trading Outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD held up better than most overnight with EUR/AUD selling to record lows new 1.2000 helping the major to remain supported against the USD. China cut rates and this also helped keep the Asian neighbor currency in demand. The China story is critical for the AUD and will be closely watch in the 2nd half of the year. Looking ahead, May Japanese Leading Indicators previously at -1.3.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is holding to a tight range just under 1.0300 as the market consolidates. The AUD/USD did push above 1.0300 briefly in Asia yesterday on the stronger than expected May Retail Sales but traders are hesitant to be too long into the ECB and Nonfarm Payrolls. Looking ahead, AUD May Trade Balance forecast at -500mn vs. -203mn previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD was well supported from the stock market rally with the RBA hold at 3.5% and indicating patience and caution going forward with European and Chinese threats still existing to the Australian economy. They did not however the underlying outlook and strength of the Commodity powerhouse was positive. UPDATE May Retail Sales Positive at 0.5% vs. 0.2% previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD was up and down all day in a 50 pip range around the 1.2040 level. The outlook is for more gains if stocks continue to fall with economic data recently strong from the commodity country after the RBA cut rates. The RBA meets today and is expect to wait before indicating if more cuts are needed after cutting at the last two rate meetings. Support is seen at 1.01800 if they are unexpectedly bearish. Looking ahead, RBA Rate Announcement forecast to hold at 3.5%.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie is a risk currency and so rallied dramatically on Friday up from parity to key resistance at 1.0240. The outlook is mixed with the recent interest rate cuts and Chinese slowdown leading many analyst to suggest a lower AUD but the stock market is the key driver so it will be watch for direction. A continued rally would see the medium term bull target of 1.0500 open up. UPDATE Q2 Japanese Tankan improves to -1 vs. -4 forecast and previously.
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