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Daily outlook - 17th February 2012 (00:30GMT)

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY 17th February 2012

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a dramatic day of trading saw the EUR/USD test the major 1.3000 level before reversing sharply to 1.3150 on news that Greece expects the Eurogroup to approve its loan on Monday. This combined with good US data after weekly jobless claims fell to 348k vs. 361k previously. Also strong is the February Philly Business Conditions jumping to 10.2 vs. 7.3.

Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) in a failure for the bears the 1.3000 level held firm and then short covering spurred the sharp move high on the Greece loan news. EUR/JPY is also at year highs as the relief rally continues and we are seeing a more positive outlook on most crosses. In US stocks, June Core CPI forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously. Also ahead, June EZ current Account forecast at 2.3bn vs. -1.8bn previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Dollar used risk off trade going into the European session to push the USD/JPY to 78.80 and the buying continued even as the stocks turned around with EUR/JPY lifting to fresh year highs and dragging most Yen crosses with it.

Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD surged above 1.5800 with the Euro led market turnaround late in the European session. The GBP/USD now looking to recent highs above 1.5900 as the bulls target short term.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was well supported on the dip to the bottom of its recent 1.06-08 range and when stocks surged on good US data the AUD/USD led the market higher once again. The outlook is still strong and if the risk factor of Greece subsides then 1.1000 is likely to be tested.

Oil & Gold (XAU)

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold took advantage of the USD weakness to rally back to $1730 and is well placed to resume its uptrend after solid support near $1700. OIL/USD pushed on to New Year highs and is targeting $103 and $105 in coming sessions.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY