EUR Trading Outlook


 
29.7.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012

29th July

EUR/USD NY saw tight ranges carry over form the overnight session. The pair did have a tint of short covering added to it as specs lightened up ahead of big event and data risk due later in the week. Short covering in NY saw the pair trade from 1.3430 to a high of 1.3444. the long-term trend remains bearish but further short covering may persist as the upcoming Fed meeting is not expected to rattle expectations too much. Being that there is only an accompanying statement released at the decision and no direct Yellen comments traders aren't expecting too much form the Fed. Most traders believe the Fed won't give any hawkish tips and this could aid further short covering into the meeting. The US GDP, ADP and NFP data will get more focus. Should the results be favorable for the US econ, bond yields should lift and EUR/USD's slide should resume. It's likely the 200-Week MA will be cleared and the pair may make a run to sub-1.3300 levels into the weekend.

28th July

EUR/USD The below f/c German IFO data ignited EUR/USD's latest leg lower in Europe's session. The pair collapsed from 1.3475 to 1.3440 before bouncing towards 1.3455 into NY's open. NY immediately applied pressure even after May's durable goods orders saw a big downward revision. Sour risk sentiment due to seemingly increased Ukraine/Rusia tensions saw bond yields and stocks soft while the USD and JPY were firm. EUR/USD slipped from the NY open, pierced the 200 week MA and hit a low of 1.3421 while EUR/JPY slid from near 137.10 to a 136.65 low. Both saw only minor bounces as they held slightly above the day's low late in the session. EUR may come under greater pressure next week with the catalyst liekly coming from the USD. Big data/event risk lies ahead. Wednesday gives us July ADP, Q2 GDP and the Fed. Friday brings the July jobs report. Should the results of this risk be USD bullish EUR/USD's recent slide is likely to accelerate. We're likely to then see the 200-WMA break cleanly and bears immediately target 1.3295/17 (Nov low, weekly cloud base). A break there puts the Sep low (1.3105) in play.


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