EUR Trading Outlook
The euro (EUR) recorded gains against most of its major counterparts as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its lending rate unchanged at 1.00%. As this was what the market expected, investors immediately turned their attention to the press conference that followed. ECB President Mario Draghi was less dovish than anticipated and promoted a sense of unanimity within the central bank, improving market sentiment. Against the Brittish pound, the single currency had a volatile ride plunging to 0.8102 – a near 2-year record low - from its open at 0.8120 but managed to close in a slightly positive area at 0.8124.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD was sold going into the European session as Italian PMI shocked to the downside and rumors of bank downgrades swept through the market. Support at 1.3160 was broken but the market did not fall far finding support at 1.3130 before stabilizing and recovering slightly.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD hit fresh multi week highs above 1.3280 but quickly reversed as the USD gained post the surprise ISM data in the US session. The outlook is mixed with the Eurozone debt crisis not grabbing attention as it once did and allowing the stock market rally to encourage Euro buying. EUR/JPY is quite low still as the USD/JPY struggles and is quite attractive at these levels.
The Euro (EUR) a very quiet start to the week with some slight selling in Europe as Spain was officially put into recession after printing a -0.3% Q/Q rate of GDP in Q1. German Retail Sale grew 0.8% in March and this helped improve sentiment slightly as the German economy is by far the largest in the EU.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD fell going into the European session as the Spanish downgrade pushed the EUR/USD to 1.3160. The positive stock market rally and the weak US GDP helped lift the major to 1.3270 before consolidating the gains into the weekend. The outlook is positive with the Eurozone debt crisis failing to cause the usual selling. The Spanish Unemployment rate is continuing to soar up to 24.4% in Q1.
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