EUR Trading Outlook


 
17.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012 17.8.2012-13.8.2012 10.8.2012-6.8.2012 3.8.2012-30.7.2012 27.7.2012-23.7.2012 20.7.2012-16.7.2012 13.7.2012-9.7.2012 6.7.2012-2.7.2012 29.6.2012-26.6.2012 22.6.2012-18.6.2012 14.6.2012-11.6.2012 8.6.2012-4.6.2012 1.6.2012-28.5.2012

11th April

AUD/USD: While the long term trend is bullish and short term warnings are extant. The rally stalled at the base of the weekly cloud, daily RSI is deeply overbought and retail accounts (contrarian) short positions have been reduced. Spread widening has stalled as well. A pullback for the pair may be in order. Decent support sits in the 0.9300/20 & 0.9205/25 zones.

EUR/USD: The pair slipped from high of 1.3875 to 1.3854 as USD/JPY tried to rally back above 102 after a better than expected jobless claim. However, the market did not further react to this data and had their eyes on the heavy bond yields and bearish USD sentiment returned again. Bulls pushed the pair through 76.4 Fib of 1.3967-1.3672 and hit a high of 1.3900 before profit taking kicked in. Daily & Weekly RSIs remain biased up, if 1.3900-20 area fully breaks then its more likely bulls retest 1.4000 level.

10th April

AUD/USD: A break of the 0.9400 barrier would lead the bulls to a push towards November high at 0.9448. Current pivot point for the AUD is at 0.9330 and support comes in at 0.9295 and 0.9250.

EUR/USD: Initially, tight ranges were being played on the pair as sold offering interest in the 1.3810/20 area. ECB member stated a negative deposit rate is a possibility and that the ECB must have flexibility to mix sov & private asset buys in any QE program. However, limited bear push only made the pair drop to 1.3797. The dovish FOMC minutes helped the bulls pushed to a high of 1.3858, market will now be eyeing on the 1.3880 resistance level.

9th April

AUD/USD: With the AUD above the 61.8 Fib of 0.9758-0.8660 & day/week RSIs still providing positive momentum bulls are gaining confidence. They will be targeting late November high near 0.9450. A possible 0.9400 barrier & the looming OZ jobs report may temper the rally's pace but for now it looks set to persist.

EUR/USD: The pair rallied on the back of USD weakness from 1.3741 open to a high of 1.3811. Intra day stops and options expires at 1.3750 & 1.3800 helped the pair pushed higher in NY session. However, offshore EUR/USD offers ahead of the 21-DMA helped cap the rally. ECB comments from last left the door opened for unconventional measures but needed more confirmation.

8th April

AUD/USD: Support remains in the 0.9200/20 area with reports that large stops are building below that zone. For now, 0.9200/0.9310 range still in play, market may need to wait for the jobs number to come out for further confirmation on this pair.

EUR/USD: Overnight reaction was limited however, short covering started. Technical support in the 1.3680/00 zone and fading effects of Draghi's ECB presser seemed to inspire the covering. Decent stops above 1.3750 were safe from last night, with little data due, market awaits for the Wednesday FOMC minutes.

7th April

AUD/USD: A better than expected Oz job data could help the AUD to test 0.9340 resistance, a break above there could trigger a run towards 0.9450.

EUR/USD: The pair was sitting close to 1.3700 area before the NFP, as the data came out below f/c, EUR/USD made a quick lift to near 1.3720. However, the gain was quickly given away as well as JPY strength came in, EUR/JPY slipped to a low of 141.42, dragged the EUR/USD to a low of 1.3672. Bids into TL support of the July low & 21 WMA halted the slide. Light data are due for this week, could see this pair trading in a tight range.


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