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EUR Trading Outlook

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20th February

EUR/USD The pair sat just below 1.1400 in early NY after Europe smacked the pair down after another failed attempt at break 1.1450/60 resistance. Germany's rejection of Greece's extension proposal then saw the pair dive again. A low of 1.1355 was quickly hit. Broad USD strength aided the pair's dive. Bears ran out of gas though as the USD began giving up ground. A return towards NY's open ensued but the lift couldn't be sustained. An afternoon lift for the USD on firm US bond yields pressed EUR/USD lower again. Also pressing on the pair was a German position paper noting that Greece's request was a 'trojan horse' that would replace the bailout program with bridge financing. EUR/USD slipped below the 200-HMA again and sat just above the day's low into the close. Traders now look to tomorrow's Euro group meeting for their next cues. If the Greek situation deteriorates it's likely EUR/USD gets hit and we may see a test of key support in the 1.1260/70 area.

19th February

EUR/USD Europe weighed the pair down as the USD was broadly bid. They slipped the pair from the 1.1415 area towards 1.1385 at NY's open. NY applied further bear pressure as the market ignored the onslaught of Greek headlines and instead focused on rising US bond yields. Treasury yields added to gains from yesterday and this helped spreads widen further and push EUR/USD below the 10 & 21-DMAs. A low of 1.1334 was hit shortly before it was DJN Greece was given an ELA extension of two weeks. Reuters then reported a bit later that Greece's CB requested 5bln EUR but was only given 3.3bln. The big move came after the Fed minutes. The Fed leaned dovish and stated many policymakers leaned towards leaving rates lower for longer due to weak inflation and other concerns. The Fed wants more evidence of continued growth & signs inflation will rise before hiking. EUR/USD spiked up on the news. A high of 1.1416 was hit as the USD and US bond yield tumbled. A late day bounce for the greenback saw the pair near 1.1385 late in the day.

18th February

EUR/USD opened NYC 1.1440 on the retreat from O/N highs by 1.1450. The rally was sparked by comments from the Greek FinMin suggesting Greece would agree to a draft plan by EU's Moscovici that would be an extension of the loan agreement, but not an extension of the current program. New York traded an edgy 1.1442/ 1.1381/ 1.1425 chop with rhetoric sparring, 20-30 pip gyrations on single headline prints. Underneath it all there was a EUR/USD steady bid, partially due to the O/N ZEW data but more related to an underlying belief that a deal would be struck, the latest tick up on "sources" in Brussels that aver Greece will request a six month loan extension tomorrow (not the bailout, just the loan see [ID:nL5N0VR4GO] ) ZEW

17th February

16th February

EUR/USD opened NYC 1.1417, 13 pips up on last night's close. Initial action saw a probe of the 200-HMA that fell short, 1,1380 offered was the low (200-HMA 1.1372 at the time) A strong Canadian Mfg sales print knocked USD/CAD lower Canadian Dollar Briefing pressured the DXY lower and created a general dour dollar sentiment. EUR/USD ground higher, was paid at 1.1432 ahead of the London fix. Oil prices had surged 4.3% at that point, also putting pressure on the DXY. However discretion being the better part of valor on a Friday afternoon, ahead of a long holiday weekend in the US, oil traders booked profits, Brent closed +3.7%, WTI +2.9%. Algos unwound EUR/USD longs, spot slipped back to 1.1385 given, closed 1.1392.

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