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EUR Trading Outlook

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3rd October

EUR/USD Europe held EUR/USD to a relatively tight range as the mkt awaited the ECB decision and Draghi's presser. NY walked in with the pair near 1.2640. The ECB kept rates unch as expected. EUR/USD lifted a bit after the decision as general USD weakness took hold. The lift accelerated during Draghi's presser. There was no mention of QE beside that the bank is ready to use it if needed. Draghi did go over some details of the ABS/covered bond buys but wasn't specific about amounts. He did spend a fair amount of time government fiscal policy and structural reform and pointed out he trust France to take the needed steps for reforms. He also noted that the ECB can't lower rates any longer. Traders seemed a bit disappointed with Draghi and short covering ensued. A rally to 1.2692 took hold. A bout of JPY strength drove EUR/JPY from 137.63 to 136.86. EUR/USD dipped as well & hit 1.2625 but USD weakness remained the them and the dip was bought. The pair hit a 1.2699 high before it dipped near 1.2980 late in the day. US jobs are the mkt's next cue.

2nd October

EUR/USD was in consolidation mode for Europe & NY as the market awaits the ECB. Europe pusehd the pair to s-t support near 1.2585 into NY's open. The pair looked set to make more losses as ADP beat forecasts but the pair rallied shortly after the data. US bond yield saw a big slide after the data and the USD went broadly offered. EUR/USD ralied to a 1.2640 high. No further gains were possible though. Weak equirty markets combined with JPY strength to send EUR/JPY crashing though 137.95. It eventually hit a 137.62 low. EUR/USD was dragged from its high and hit 1.2590. The slide ran out of steam though and the pair bounced to sit just above 1.2605 late in the day. Traders now look to the ECB to for the details of ABS & covered bond buys. Some trades might be looking for additional measures to be announced from the ECB after GErman and EZ PMIs were soft today while soft inflation data early in the week suggest deflation or larger disinflation may become a bigger issue for the zone. EUR/USD remains a sell on rallies for now.

1st October

EUR/USD Europe crushed EUR/USD to 1.2590 after EZ CPI was initially reported below f/c. Broad based USD strength exacerbated the move. Early NY saw that USD strength carry over and EUR/USD was driven to a new trend low of 1.2571. The USD's rally abated and EUR selling relented. A profit taking lift took hold. The lift's pace increased though. A combination of a string of below f/c US econ data and an upward revision to the EZ core inflation estimate from 0.7% to 0.8% y/y from Eurostat aided to speed the rise. EUR/USD rallied to 1.2635. The USD remained somewhat soft in NY's afternoon and EUR/USD sat just below NY's high late in the day. The market remains in sell rally mode and offers are touted in the 1.2655/60 area with more in the 1.2690/00 area. The risk of a squeeze remains but a squeeze is unlikely to gain much traction as the ECB meets Thursday. The market is expecting the ECB to up its easing arsenal at some point in order to seriously expand its balance sheet and EUR likely stays heavy as a result.

30th September

EUR/USD Broad based USD weakness (particularly vs. JPY) in Europe initiated a profit taking short squeeze that had EUR/USD near 1.2690 into NY's open. The lift continued as German Sep. HICP came in above f/c, USD weakness persisted in early NY and soft US yields offered no help the USD bulls. EUR/USD rallied to a session high of 1.2715. Resting offers from Asian names capped the rally and a recovery for the USD aided to push EUR/USD briefly below 1.2680. Dovish comments from the Fed's Evans and his note of USD strength being taken into account on the affects of trade & inflation combined with a soft US pending home sales number to send EUR/USD higher once again. The pair traded above 1.2713 but bulls ran out of gas as the USD staged a recovery. Late in the day the pair sat just above 1.2690. Traders now look to German Aug retails sales & Sep unemployment data as well as EZ Sep CPI for cue tomorrow. Weak results will weigh on EUR. If the results are slightly upbeat a short squeeze might ensue but l-t bears likely fade any rallies as the mkt sees the ECB adding more easing measures soon.

29th September

EUR/USD Europe held the pair to a relatively tight range as it appeared a quiet market was setting up into the weekend. EUR/USD bears were abruptly shaken from their slumber in early NY though. USD/JPY powered through the 109.10 levels and US bond yields saw a strong rally. Both rallies coincided with the announcement that Bond investor Bill Gross was leaving Pimco to join Janus Capital Group and had some traders attributing the rally to that event. EUR/USD dived from the 1.2745 area and didn't let up until it hit 1.2679. A brief bout of USD weakness allowed a bounce above 1.2700 but USD strength returned (particularly vs. JPY) and EUR/USD slid to a new trend low of 1.2677. Very little bounce was seen and the pair sat near the low late in the day. Traders now turn their focus to German & EZ CPI readings and the ECB next week. Soft inflation data will put further pressure on EUR/USD. Traders likely look to sell rallies ahead of the ECB as market sentiment grows that the ECB's current plans won't expand their balance sheet enough and they may resort to QE. It's unlikely the ECB will announce additional easing methods next week though.

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