EUR Trading Outlook
AUD/USD: A break of 0.9200 could make the pair run into 0.9120/50 sold support area. The 21 % 200 DMAS sit there as do the low from March 25 and the high from March 19. A break through those levels would see a quick run to sub 0.9000.
EUR/USD: The pair was sitting around 1.3760 before the ECB. The initial ECB statement sounded as no action will be taken just like last meeting, making the pair spike up to 1.3808. However, Draghi's tone started to change and EUR slid below 1.3740 and hit a low of 1.3698. Once again, if U.S comes in with a strong data, we could see EUR slip below tech support of 1.3665/95, if cleared, then Feb low of 1.3477 could be tested again.
AUD/USD: Tight range in play, waiting for better indication. However, a break below exports bid of 0.9220 could see a follow through to the 200 DMA level, meaning bears would start jumping in again.
EUR/USD: Asian sellers near 1.3820 and other offers ahead of the 21-DMA & March 26 high capped the o/n rally. The pair tested the 200 hour MA but weakness was aided by most of the other major crosses. EUR/USD dropped after ADP slightly missed forecast, pierced through 200 HMA and ran to a low of 1.3753. Very little bounces were seen, the market now will focus on ECB first, a dovish surprise from it would see sub 1.3600 levels quickly.
AUD/USD: The longer-term trend remains up but daily techs and flash shows some warning for the pair. Another long wick forms on the daily candle after making a new high and the RSI is diverged at o/b levels. A break below 0.9215/20 would probably see the pair retest 200 DMA (0.9138).
EUR/USD: The initial spike in Europe saw the pair breached the 200 MA and briefly traded above 1.3800 and then spiked down below 1.3783 again but a quick rebound took hold. Asian offers into 1.3820 and other offers ahead of the 21 DMA capped the rally & 1.3790 was revisited after US PMI came in as forecasted. Market sentiment seems to be growing that the ECB won't act. EUR/USD rally might persist unless the ECB takes action to stem the EUR's rise.
AUD/USD: A break above 0.93 will have longer-term bulls eye resistance near 0.9450. Pivot point at 0.9210, with support comes in 0.9180 and 0.9150.
EUR/USD: The EZ CPI came in just below the forecast but market reaction was similar to last Germany's inflation data. EUR/USD rallied from near 1.3725 towards 1.3805 just as NY walked in but slipped to hourly support near 1.3760/65 as offers were holding firmly around 1.3780-10 area.
AUD/USD: For now, bulls still holds the reign’s longer term. Bull hurdles are offering around 0.9300/15 and the 61.8% Fib of 0.9758-0.8660. A break above those levels put the late November high (0.9448) in play.
EUR/USD: The pair slid to a new trend low of 1.3705 on soft Spanish & German CPI data. Short covering started as EUR/JPY rallied, supporting the EUR/USD to a high of 1.3776 but dropped back down to 1.3740-50 area as market awaits for French GDP and EZ CPI. If data comes in poor, we may see 1.3640/70 area tested and a breakthrough would see bears push the pair further.
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