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EUR Trading Outlook


 
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28th May

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was flat on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5470) and above its 50d MA (@ 5431). 65% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 58% the previous session) and 59% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 54%).

Australian consumer confidence fell a further 1.1% in the week ending May 25, according to the ANZ Bank.

27th May

EUR/USD Post IFO setback hit 1.3616 Fri and 1.3615 in Asia today. Early GFK consumer sentiment for June as expected 8.5. Pair up from 1.3620 to 45 in early London after Constancio said ECB speakers would not discuss policy today, although Draghi still went ahead in Portugal, but said nothing new. EZ equity gains to 6yr highs played their part in thin conditions, as did the Ukraine presidential election, with exit polls suggesting Poroshenko clear winner. Decent bids into option barriers at 1.3600 and offers noted 1.3650. Technical resistance at 1.3658 and 1.3688 (highs Thrs/Fri). 200dma is at 1.3639. Today/Tues sees around EUR 1bln 1.3620 option expiries.

26th May

EUR/USD The German IFO miss tripped stops below 1.3635/40 and a new trend low of 1.3616 was hit just as NY walked in. NY couldn't push the pair lower though as bids ahead of the 1.3600 barrier, slightly narrower yield spreads and a market positioned short into the long US weekend made it prudent for shorts to cover a bit. Even headlines from asset manager Blackrock noting reduced peripheral EU bond positions and comments from ECB's Coeure saying a negative depo rate is an option couldn't inspire bears. NY lifted EUR/USD off the low and briefly had it touch 1.3643. A lift for USD/JPY above 102.00 pushed EUR/USD down again and it sat just below the 200-DMA late in the session. Bears rule the roost for now as a new trend low is set & the 200-DMA is pierced. The MA break saw only limited follow through and bears may need a more decisive move below it before feeling more confident in pushing the pair lower. Techs still support the slide as day/week RSIs remain biased down with no divergence. Once the slide picks up speed, longer-term bears target the Jan/Feb lows near 1.3475/80 initially.


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