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EUR Trading Outlook

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11th July

EUR/USD Weak econ data from France & Italy added to concerns over EZ banks and rising EZ peripheral bond yields. Bears pushed EUR/USD from Europe's 1.3651 high and had it near 1.3625 as NY got going. NY added pressure right out of the gate. The appetite for safe haves grew in early NY. US bond yields sank while the USD and the JPY were well bid. The pair pierced the 21-DMA and hit a low of 1.3589. Aiding the slide was US equity mkts opening near their lows. Macro bids in the 1.3580/85 area aided to stem the slide. After a second attempt to break to new lows failed a small bounce ensued and the pair sat just above 1.3600 late in the day. A EUR/JPY rally near 137.90, driven by a recovery in US equity mkts and bond yields, aided EUR/USD's late day lift. The pair still remained down near 0.30% for the day though and the technical picture has grown a bit more bearish. Daily RSI has rolled over, a bearish outside day candle is in place, the 55-DMA is crossing below the 200-DMA & the daily cloud base has slipped below 1.3670. This may result in a test of June's low in the near future.

10th July

EUR/USD Offers into the 200-HMA and 1.3640/50 zone saw Europe smash EUR/USD lower from the 1.3631 level & have it sitting just above 1.3600 into NY's open. Early action was limited but the pair looked set to make further losses as US yields and the USD were generally firm. Lower levels were not to be though. EUR caught a bid in the crosses, especially vs. JPY, AUD & GBP) and began rallying. The 200-HMA was cleared and 1.3640 breached but the gains fades as US yields held firm and the Fed minutes were due. A drift lower had the pair near 1.3625 into the minutes. A quick spike lower off the tip to ending QE in Oct. if econ conditions could support the cut saw EUR/USD test near 1.3610. The slide reversed though as there seemed to be no mention of rate hikes in the minutes. Broad based USD sales by CTAs aided EUR/USD's lift. The earlier high was cleared and a new high of 1.3648 was set. Draghi spoke and gave lip service to a lower EUR but it had no effect. Little pullback was seen & EUR/USD sat near the high late in the day. Traders look to China's trade data & BoJ later for their next cues.

8th July

EUR/USD Europe aided a short-term recovery for the pair as they walked in with the pair just above the late-June lows. The lift had the pair just below 1.3600 into NY's open. Speculation of reserve manager diversification and noted corporate buying were the main drivers for the lift. Early NY saw a small dip but a CB buyer emerged and pushed the pair back above 1.3600. Soft US bond yields and a generally weak USD allowed for further small gains. A high of 1.3609 was hit. Little pullback was seen and the pair sat just below the high late in the day. There is little in the way of economic data this week for the EZ and US. This may see the pair linger within recent ranges and any EUR/USD moves are likely to take direction from the crosses.

7th July




FRIDAY, JULY 4, 2014


Market Briefs
• DJIA closes above 17k for first time, S&P 500 hits fresh record
• US Non-Farm Payrolls Jun +288k, f/c 212k, +224k-prev
• US Private Payrolls Jun +262k, f/c 210k, +224k-prev
• US Manufacturing Payrolls Jun +16k, f/c 10k, +11k-prev
• US Government Payrolls Jun+26k, 0k-prev
• US Unemployment Rate Jun6.1%, f/c 6.3%, 6.3%-prev
• US Average Earnings MM Jun 0.20%, f/c 0.2%, 0.2%-prev
• US Average Workweek Hrs Jun34.5h, f/c 34.5h, 34.5h-prev
• ECB leaves rates unchanged
• Draghi ECB interest rates will stay low for an extended period, unanimous in its commitment to use unconventional instruments if needed, Annual HICP inflation expected to remain at low levels over the coming months, see inflation gradually rise in ‘15/’16, ECB is interested in promoting ABS to heal impairment of bank lending channel
• Weidmann wrong to speculate about further measures immediately after June decisions, concerned that low rates are easing pressure on govt’s to reform consolidate budgets
• BOE’s Cunliffe BOE more willing to use interest rates to tackle bubbles than before crisis
• Swedish FinMin Borg says we have reason to be worried about household indebtedness
• Moody’s Mexican states face growing pressure from pension liabilities
• US International Trade MM $ May-44.39b, f/c -45.0b, -47.04b-prev
• US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 315k, f/c314k, 313k-prev
• US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 315.00k, 314.50k-prev
• US Continued Jobless Claims w/e2.579m, f/c 2.563m, 2.568m-prev
• US Markit Comp Final PMI Jun 61, 58.4-prev
• US Markit Svcs PMI Final F Jun 61, 61.2-prev
• US ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 56, f/c 56.3, 56.3-prev
• US ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Jun 57.5, f/c 61, 62.1-prev
• US ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Jun 54.4, 52.4-prev
• US ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Jun 61.2, 60.5-prev
• US ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Jun 61.2, 61.4-prev
• CA Trade Balance C$ May-0.15b, f/c -0.25b, -0.96b-prev
• CA Exports C$ May 44.17b, f/c ]43.40b, 42.66b-prev
• CA Imports C$ May44.32b, f/c 43.70b, 43.62b-prev
• BR HSBC Services PMI Jun 51.4, 50.6-prev
• BR HSBC Composite PMI Jun49.9, 49.8-prev
• BR CNI Factory Utilization* May80.7%, 81.1%-prev
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• No Significant Data

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant events

Currency Summaries
EUR/USD Tight ranges held in Europe again. The one rally toward 1.3665 was thwarted and the pair drifted lower as EZ Service PMIs were generally softer than f/c. The pair slid near 1.3650/55 into NY's open and sat there into the ECB decision. As expected there was no change from the ECB and EUR/USD was static until the US jobs. The jobs data was well above f/c and prior readings were revised upwards although wage growth was tepid. The USD and US bond yields took off. EUR/USD plummeted but held short of breaking the June 27 low. Draghi's presser began shortly after the jobs data. He reiterated that rates will stay low for an extended period, outlined the TLTRO and noted that the GC is unanimous in its commitment to use unconventional measures if needed. EUR/USD dipped lower again & hit a 1.3596 low. No further losses were possible though as US yields gave back some early gains after the 10 year couldn't breech the 200-DMA. Traders lighted up shorts on that as the US has a long w/e coming up. The pair lifted to 1.3620 before settling just below 1.3610 late in the day.

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