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EUR Trading Outlook


 
26.5.2015-26.5.2015 22.5.2015-18.5.2015 15.5.2015-11.5.2015 8.5.2015-4.5.2015 1.5.2015-27.4.2015 24.4.2015-20.4.2015 17.4.2015-14.4.2015 9.4.2015-6.4.2015 3.4.2015-30.3.2015 27.3.2015-23.3.2015 20.3.2015-16.3.2015 13.3.2015-9.3.2015 6.3.2015-2.3.2015 27.2.2015-23.2.2015 20.2.2015-16.2.2015 13.2.2015-9.2.2015 6.2.2015-2.2.2015 30.1.2015-28.1.2015 22.1.2015-21.1.2015 15.1.2015-12.1.2015 8.1.2015-8.1.2015 12.12.2014-8.12.2014 5.12.2014-1.12.2014 27.11.2014-24.11.2014 21.11.2014-17.11.2014 13.11.2014-10.11.2014 6.11.2014-4.11.2014 31.10.2014-27.10.2014 24.10.2014-20.10.2014 17.10.2014-13.10.2014 10.10.2014-8.10.2014 3.10.2014-29.9.2014 26.9.2014-22.9.2014 19.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013

1st May

EUR/USD
• O/N rally stalls ahead of 1.1250/80 res, slips toward 1.1190 into NY open
• Above f/c US ECI & below f/c claims lift USD, EUR/USD dips ~1.1115
• Dip bought as German bond yields rally outperforms US yield lift
• USD & US yield gains erode in afternoon, EUR/USD ~1.1220 late in day
• Asia & European session likely quiet with Labor day holiday
• April Markit & ISM Mfg PMIs risks in NY, if weak pair likely rises further

USD/JPY
• O/N post BOJ dip to 118.50 left o/s USD/JPY primed for rebound on US data
• Tsy ylds drove it toward Cloud top, Apr 23 hi & dn TL fm Mar at 120.05/10/20
• 119.90 capped as Tsy ylds retreated amid stocks fall (N225 futs -2.7% last)
• Stops above 120.10-20, but need US data strong enough to keep stocks up
• EUR/JPY well above daily Cloud, light rsst by 135; 200-DMA 137.41
• HY/Cmdty/EM crosses pruned. 

30th April

EUR/USD
Choppy action ~1.1100 in Europe's morning, NY opens sub-1.1100
Big miss on US GDP sees broad based USD sales, EUR/USD rallies
61.8 Fib of 1.1534-1.0463 & daily cloud top pierced, 1.1188 high hit
P/T pre-Fed sees sub-1.1150; Fed slightly hawkish tip spikes USD
1.1075 tested but dip bought as USD bulls don't get much from Fed
Pair sub-61.8 Fib late in day, Apr DE jobs & EZ CPI risks o/n

USD/JPY
Broad USD sales after GDP miss trimmed USD/JPY to up TL off Mar-Apr lows
FOMC's steady policy statement enough to get above 119 v 118.60 low
Pair is US data dependent to confirm Fed view econ will rebound soon
EUR/JPY cleared key 131.67 and 132.64 Fibo hurdles on EUR short-covers
EUR/JPY's Cloud top Thursday is right at today's 132.89 peak

GBP/USD
Cable rallied to 2-mos high v USD by1.5498 after weak US Q1 GDP data
Steady Fed pushed cable to 1.5410 before reversing to end the session by 1.5430
Traders focus on potential rebound in inflation, rate hikes; ignore May 7 election
With US GDP/FOMC out of the way election risks may once again press on the pound
EUR/GBP rose as Greek tensions abate & EZ equities selloff trigger stops, lifts EUR
Cross ran into offers ahead of the daily cloud base at 0.7231
SNP could win all 59 seats in Scotland in UK election-poll 

29th April

EUR/USD
Firm EUR crosses & CB (Asia, M/E) EUR/USD buys lift in Europe's morning
NY opens ~1.0940, dips sub-1.0920 on early USD bid, dip bought
USD rally turns & broad based sales ensue even as US yields lift
EUR/USD tests >1.0990, offers into 1.10 & FOMC combine to halt lift
Only small pullback as pair near 1.0975 late in day
If Fed dovish 1.1060/70 likely breaks, 1.1175/85 then eyed

USD/JPY
USD/JPY holds dreary range by 118.94 Cloud base after poor US Conf data
Higher USD-JPY yield spreads offset by weaker stocks
Scant hope of BOJ QQE3 Thurs or by Jul; Oct still favored if CPI remains weak
EUR/JPY above 130.43 Cloud base; Greek fears recede, EUR shorts covered
GBP/JPY past down TL fm Dec, AUD/JPY past Mar hi & 38.2% of Oct-Feb drop

28th April

EUR/USD
• Pair pressured in Europe morning on ongoing Greek concerns & USD rally
• Early NY tests sub-1.0820, turns as USD slides & Greek fears abate a bit
• Sharp USD drop & US yield slip aid EUR/USD spike, stops >1.0900 hit
• 76.4 Fib of 1.1036-1.0521 pierced & 55-DMA neared as 1.0927 high hit
• Late day slip on USD bounce sees sub-1.0890 towards Ny close
• Techs & spreads support gains; If Fed dovish March high might break

USD/JPY
• Yen weaker v all majors save for the CHF; latter sold on Varoufakis news
• High betas beating the low beta CCYs, even GBP/JPY up pre UK election
• EUR/JPY eyes Cloud base at 130.43; firm above Kijun at 128.80
• US-Japan defense pact expanded & more formalized today
• Soft 2nd-tier US data & 50% Fibo at 119.43 cap USD/JPY bounce
• Cloud base at 118.94 key on close. 

27th April

EUR/USD
• Weak German IFO expectations data sinks pair ahead of NY open
• NY lifts from ~1.0805/10 as US durables core data is weak
• US yields tumble & broad based USD sales follow
• EUR/USD up near 1.0890 as DE-US yield spreads tighten
• Pair lifts into daily cloud & nears 76.4 Fib of 1.103-1.0521
• RSIs biased up, more gains likely, March high eyed by s-t bulls

USD/JPY
• USDJPY falls after Core Durable Goods down for 6th straight month
• Still in broad range but no bounce; 118.30-50 support key
• Pair traded poorly all week despite strong rally in Nikkei
• Broad dollar undermined by US rate move; Fed getting squeezed out of 2015


  Go to Euro (EUR) Archive