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EUR Trading Outlook


 
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26th September

EUR/USD Europe crushed EUR/USD from the 1.2770 area down to 1.2696. A combination of German Fin Min Schaueble comments on the prospects of ECB buying securitised loans and covered bonds and very large EUR sales by a UK clearer were the drivers. A bounce off the lows had the pair near 1.2725 into NY's open. An early dip due to better than f/c jobless claims saw 1.2710 tested. The dip was quickly erased as large USD sales (predominantly vs JPY) saw EUR/USD rally to 1.2765. No one point cold be attributed for the USD sales but talk of the GPIF decision being delayed and a Moscow Times story reporting that a draft law allowing Russia to seize foreign assets due to sanctions may have been part of the reason. The pair pulled back from NY's high as the USD recovered a bit in the afternoon and the pair sat just above 1.2745 late in the day. Bears have full control of this pair as sentiment grows the ECB will have to do more to expand their balance sheet. A test of structural support in the 1.2650/60 area looks likely as the mkt looks to get short still. Sub-1.2650 eyes 1.2465/00.

25th September

EUR/USD Europe pushed EUR/USD lower from hourly resistance near 1.2865 early in their session. Further pressure was added on the soft German IFO and the pair sat near 1.2850 into NY's open. The pressure remained as HFs who looked to sell above 1.2900 on Sep 23 came to market. Broad USD strength emerged in NY and EUR/USD's slide quickened as macro names were noted USD buyers. The Sep 22 low was cleared and a quick move towards the 1.2800 barrier took hold as US names were big sellers. Defense of the barrier was solid at first as very large bids into 1.2800 were noted. Relentless bear pressure saw them give way though. The 1.28 break saw a quick dive to 1.2785 followed by a small bounce back to 1.2800. The pair eventually hit a 1.2774 low as the USD stayed firm. A small bounce was seen after some dovish Fed comment. The bounce faded and the pair sat just above the low late in the day. The new trend low and long upper wicks on the Sep 23 and weekly candles build bearish sentiment. RSIs are biased down & yield spreads widen to add weight. A 1.2740/50 test looks imminent.

24th September

EUR/USD Shorts were squeezed in Europe's morning as the USD and US yields were generally soft. the pair bounced off hourly support near 1.2840 and touched 1.2901 just as NY got going. The USD's slide abated even as US bond yields remained heavy. EUR/USD began sliding as broad based USD strength trumped the weaker bond yields. MNI headlines quoting economists from the SF Fed saying there is a 'sizeable wedge' between FOMC & market expectations for rates aided to accelerate the slide a bit. US Sep Mfg-PMI came in slightly below estimates but wasn't enough to stem the pair's slide. NY near the overnight low but couldn't manage further losses and the USD's rally halted. A slight bounce in the afternoon saw the pair near 1.2855 late in the day. Traders now look to Germany's Sep IFO release for their next cue. A soft result likely sees more EUR/USD losses and the pair retest the 1.2800 barrier. Large 1.2850 expiries for Wednesday may temper bears but if the barrier is cleared a quick move to key support near 1.2740/50 may ensue.

23th September

EUR/USD Europe capped the rally begun in Asia just short of 1.2870. they pushed the pair below 1.2835 before it bounced near 1.2840 into NY's open. NY pushed the pair briefly above 1.2855 a US bond yields were soft early but leveraged sellers sat there and capped the rally. Draghi's statement to the Committee on Economic & Monetary Affairs of the EP was dovish. He noted that the 'economic recovery in the Euro area is losing momentum'-DJN while also noting that 'the exchange rate isn't a policy target, but it's very important for price stability'-RTRS. EUR/USD dived to a new trend low of 1.2816. Bids into the 1.2800 barrier prevented further losses and the pair then bounced as NY's afternoon saw some USD weakness. Late in the session the pair sat just below 1.2840 and up near 0.10% for the day. Risks for a short squeeze are upped after the new low was set and the pair then closing up on the day. Bolstering the view of upped squeeze risks are diverging daily & weekly RSIs and narrowing yield spreads. Unless the pair can crack 1.2800 soon we may see s-t bears cover and the pair take a look near 1.3000.

22th September

EUR/USD The reversal in GBP/USD from its high saw a large rally in EUR/GBP from below 0.7820 towards 0.7880. The rally was of no use to EUR/USD after another try at breaking the 200-HMA overnight failed. EUR/USD plunged during Europe's morning to sit near 1.2865 as NY got going. Some USD weakness inspired by USD/JPY's slide saw EUR/USD lift near 1.2880 early in NY but bears emerged. From the NY high (1.2877) the pair steadily slid, cleared the Sep 17 low & made a new trend low of 1.2831. Little bounce was seen for the pair as the USD remained firm even as US bond yields traded on their lows for the day. EUR/USD sat just above 1.2835 late in the day. The rotten price action for the pair suggests lower levels are due as do techs & spreads. A weekly bearish engulfing candle is in place, day/week RSIs resume their bear bias and yield spreads remains at recent wides. Immediate support sit at 1.2800 followed by the 61.8 Fib of 1.2042-1.3995 but they're only likely to slow the slide. Bears seem intent on testing major support near 1.2740 for now.


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