EUR Trading Outlook
The Euro (EUR) the false rumor of a French downgrade was on the back of a Citibank research note and once this was found out the market then went back to buying and is more likely to test 1.3200 then 1.3000 in coming sessions.
The Euro (EUR) The EUR/USD fell briefly below 1.3100 in the European session closing at opening levels but in striking distance of resistance at 1.3150 if today’s Spanish bond Auction comes in strong and spurs a rally. The EUR/GBP fell as the GBP soared and should fall further given the major technical break.
The Euro (EUR) the market attempted to rally for a second day against the downtrend with the Spanish Bond Auction successful and the German ZEW Business Confidence Survey surprising the market with an increase to 23.4 vs. 22.3 previously. The EUR/USD hit profit taking above 1.3150 but is giving the sellers pause for thought with its bullish price action in the last two days.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD tested 1.3000 twice before buyers took control and we saw a sharp rally back to 1.3150 even as the mood in debt markets continued to show Spanish debt fear. The outlook is mixed with a clean break of 1.3000 needed soon or the market will begin to ignore the European debt crisis and focus on stock markets for direction.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD is approaching 1.3000 and the key level may break this time with Spanish debt continue to fall in value. The concern on Friday was that Spanish banks were holding too much of the debt and that a coming recession in Spain will pressure the Spanish banks via real estate loan defaults. Suggestions emerged over the weekend asking for more money into the ECB bond buying program but politic strains especially in France and Germany are going to make this more and more difficult.
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