EUR Trading Outlook
AUD/USD: Hourly resistance near 0.8970/75 and next level at 0.90. Overall sentiment is still a downtrend but due to USD weakness, we could see further range trading sessions from this pair. A break of 0.8880/0.89 would create second push for the pair.
EUR/USD: The pair was crushed near 1.3695 to a low of 1.3640 as tensions in the Crimea increased. However, Yellen's testimony was relatively dovish, which pushed the pair up, hitting intra-day stops above 1.3695/00 and a high of 1.3727 (200 hour MA). EZ inflation data today, a soft outcome may push EUR/USD below the daily cloud and 100 DMA as market will expect ECB to take some action on the deflation.
AUD/USD: The local bids were filled, the 21 DMA (0.8947) broke and a low of 0.8944 was hit. AUD is more likely to remain heavy, key support 0.8905/25 may be tested & cleared if data comes in poor. Below 0.8905 opens tests of 50% and 61.8% Fibs of 0.8660-0.9081 which sit 0.8871 and 0.8821 respectively.
EUR/USD: The 200 hour MA which had supported EUR/USD well through February. Once cleared the slide accelerated. End of month, USD buying from corporates added pressure on it, hitting a low of 1.3662. Bear are gaining confidence as daily RSI turned down and yield spread weigh 1.3625/55 (cloud top & base, 21 & 100 DMAs in the next hurdle). If this breaks, the rally may end and 1.3475/80 may be tested.
AUD/USD: The pair is still holding above the 10 DMA and consolidates near the Feb high. Traders are waiting for more data as mentioned above for further movements. Support 0.8920 and resistance at 0.9080.
EUR/USD: Overnight movements were still within the range of 1.3685-1.3780. Trader awaits for the EZ inflation report that will be released on Friday.
GBP/USD: Again, this pair remains within the range of 1.66-1.6740. Early gains from this pair was due to BOE's comment that UK could increase interest rate in Q2 2015 and also merging/options activities which holds the cable in the higher daily range.
AUD/USD: AUD/USD rallied to 200 DMA and showed no sign of weakness. The recent daily candles occured ahead of the daily cloud base, 21 DMA and 0.8905/25 support zone. Major resistance is still at 0.9080-90, a break would lead bulls eyeing 0.9205/25.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD dipped below the 200 hour MA hit a low of 1.3708. Bulls are still holding up as the pair is still above 10DMA but looking a bit weak. Range trade still in play 1.37/1.3775, no major news event from EZ until Friday so range should hold but if CPI comes in weak, then bears could come back strong as ECB will act to fend off low inflation.
GBP/USD: Option interest and Vodafone merger activities holds cable in 1.6585/1.6685 range. GBP is more likely to benefit from crosses as increased sentiment of the ECB moving shortly to institute further accommodation to help stimulate the EZ economies.
AUD/USD: AUD/USD failed to stay above the 10DMA for the second consecutive day, bulls are slowly exiting in early European session. Bearish daily and weekly RSI supports the view of a downtrend forming. Resistance still at 0.9085/0.9100.
EUR/USD: Bulls are still holding up as the pair held above daily cloud and 10 DMA. A break of 1.3775 and 1.38 would push up another rally. Daily RSI supports the view but yield spreads are not intune. Yield differentials need to be reduced for a possible test of late December highs.
GBP/USD: Resistance at 1.6740 and 1.6760. Support at 1.6540.
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