GBP Trading Outlook
The Sterling (GBP) the Pound held up well with the so much risk aversion in the market being supported by EUR/GBP selling. July Retails sales were softer than forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.3% m/m.  The market closed at the 1.6500 handle but could be under pressure if the stock sell off intensifies. Looking ahead, July Public net borrowing forecast at 0.4bn vs. 12.0bn.
The Sterling (GBP) was the most volatile currency in the market after spiking lower on the BOE Minutes which showed a change to 9-0 with the 2 members calling for rate hikes in recent months changing their decisions to a hold. The market bought aggressively on the dip however and surged to week highs above 1.6500. Looking ahead, July Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.7% previously.
The Sterling (GBP) outperformed and was the strongest currency in the market with UK CPI at 4.4% y/y and the Governor King suggesting 5.0% in the medium term was forecasted. The BOE has a mandate to fight inflation targeting 2-3%. There is little suggestion the BOE will raise rates soon however with the UK economy still struggling. Looking ahead, BOE Minutes forecast at 7-2-0.
The Sterling (GBP) was support on risk appetite but failed at the 1.6400 and remain offered against other currencies especially the EURO and outperforming Aussie Dollar. Some very important CPI data is released today with recent inflation data running well above target rate.
The Sterling (GBP) rallied to 1.6300 in Europe before going to sleep for the rest of the day in a 20 pip range. The market was supported on strong European stocks which rallied after a short ban was put in place on banking stocks to stop manipulation from rumors rife in the current environment.
Go to The Sterling (GBP) Archive



