GBP Trading Outlook
The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD enjoyed rare support as the BOE held at 0.5% and didn’t change its own QE program. The Pound tracked the Euro higher and we finished just under 1.6200. The recent run of bad data and losses had started to undermine the rally seen over the last month but last night’s performance was strong enough to scare the shorts. Looking ahead, August Industrial Orders forecast at -0.5% vs. 0.5% previously.
The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was on the back foot with some analysts suggesting the BOE will move to increase the Asset Purchase Program. GBP/USD broke 1.6100 and is threatening to slide further to 1.6000. The run of bad survey data this week is adding to the gloom with September Services PMI falling to 52.2 vs. 53.7 previously. Looking ahead, BOE forecast to hold at 0.5% and keep the asset purchase program at 375bn. Also, ECB forecast to hold rates at 0.75% and hold Press Conference afterwards.
The Sterling (GBP) was weaker than the Euro and fell to back to day lows unwinding any rally during the day. Investors have changed their mood on the GBP/USD last week and we seem to be in the process of consolidation and pullback. Looking ahead, EU September PMI Services forecast at 46 vs. 46. UK September PMI Services forecast at 53 vs. 53.7 previously.
The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD underperformed again overnight with the market still in shock after the sharp selling on Friday and we didn’t manage to reclaim 1.6200 even with the mood improving. The source of the weakness is hard to pinpoint but traders point to weak crosses with EUR/GBP in particular overnight breaking back above 0.8000. Looking ahead, September UK Nationwide House Price forecast at 0.0% vs. 1.3% previously. Also EU PPI forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously.
The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD hit day highs at 1.6260 during the European session but was slammed lower in the US session. The heavy Euro and risk off stocks were the main catalyst for the Pound along with talk of month end flows being were largely GBP negative. Looking ahead, EU September PMI forecast at 46.0. Also UK September PMI forecast at 49.
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