JPY Trading Outlook


 
22.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012

22th July

USD/JPY recovered it's intraday dip with help from higher short-term Tsy yields and reduction in equity market losses; the latter after President Obama took a reasonably low-key tone in his latest speech on MH-17 et al. UK's Cameron was much more strident, but the mkts are sensing that the West will remain measured in their response. Most currencies are little changed to start the week, though the tone was a bit more risk-off overall and thus friendly to those buying yen dips. Offers are grouped at 101.45-50, 101.70-80 and 102.00. Local bids into 101 persist, with stops said below 101.95 and the next defense in the 101.75-80 range. EUR/JPY is digesting last week's slide, but is this week below the 55-WMA, having already broken below the weekly Cloud top, Tenkan and Kijun lines. The '14 low at 136.25 is pivotal. The IMF upped their '14 German GDP outlook, but the mkt clearly remains concerned by the EZ's economic outlook and the ECB's ltd room for maneuvering on QE. US CPI & Existing Home Sales and the EU meeting on their response to MH17 are Tues's main event risks. Japanese Trade and CPI are out Thur & Fri. Vols remain subdued.

21th July

USD/JPY Another week is ending with USD/JPY still stuck in dwindling ranges above seemingly indefatigable support by 101. Thur's risk-off flows reverses and mean reverted o/n, including Tsy yields, which recovered most of Thur's losses, regardless of soft TR/UM & LEI. A decent US earnings season and Thur's report from the Fed that US bank loans & leases expanded at a 7.7% annualized rate in Q2 keep some focus on the timing of Fed tightening, but Friday was more about booksquaring into the w/e after Thur's geo-pol derisking jag. As such, the yen was offered from Asia onward. USD/JPY's 101.09 low 3 pips above the July 10 nadir, and at the lower 21-day Bolli for a second day running, was the cue to cover. Japan's long w/e helped. As usual, topside was limited as vols fumble around record lows. Offers strewn between 101.45 and 101.80. EUR/USD's flail below 1.3500 yanked EUR/JPY briefly to a 136.72 low. This year's 136.25 low is getting close enough to sway the risk/reward analysis for would-be seller and those with hefty short profits. AUD/JPY finished a 61.8% of May-Jul rise by 94.34. NZD/JPY held its up TL fm '12. Japan Trade and CPI are out on July 23 & 24.


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