JPY Trading Outlook
USD/JPY The JPY rallied in Asia, while stocks were sold, after BoJ left policy mostly as is (loan programs expanded) and cut its CPI f/c, thus making the FY15 2% CPI goal no longer the central expectation. The CB tweaked its growth f/c up beginning in FY 15/16. The BOJ is trying to look through low oil prices, but they will need better economic growth over the next qtr or two to refrain from pulling the qualitative easing trigger again. The 118.80 high stalled by Tues's 118.87 high and good offers below the 21-DMA & 61.8% of the 120.82-115.85 slide at 118/92/96, as well as 119 defenses. Weak stocks took USD/JPY to a NorAm low of 117.18, but decent US Single-family Housing Starts & the BOC rate cut lifted quotes. That rally ran out of steam shy of the hourly Cloud top & 61.8% of the 118.87-117.18 slide. EUR/JPY tested the 61.8% of the recent 134.70-137.64 recovery by 135.82 in Asia and in late Ldn. CAD/JPY tumbled on the BOC's rate cut, with 94.34-36 next L-T supports. Weekly Flow data tonight, but all eyes will be on the ECB meeting Thursday.
USD/JPY Last Friday's failed attempt to retest the Dec lows and the strong close that session set the stage for today's rally up through the daily Cloud top, the Tenkan, the Kijun and the down TL off the Jan highs. That broken TL was used as support in Noram trading as prices corrected into midday. New recovery high since then has put offers between 118.85-119 in play ahead of the 21-DMA at 119.09. The intraday rebound got legs after the US equity and Tsy yield slides were erased, or nearly so, as the day wore on. N225 futures had outperformed S&Ps o/n on speculation of some kind of BOJ easing tweak at tonight's policy announcement. Another major QE looks extremely unlikely this close to the Oct surprise and because the front of the JGB curve has already gone negative and the back end is causing headaches for pensions and insurer who can't match assets with liabilities. In any event, the late Dec-early Jan highs in the upper 120.00s are back in play. Sell-the-news unwinding of oversold EUR/JPY trades into the ECB meeting lifted it again, but a close above the Jan 15 high at 138.78 is needed to make this more than short-covered rally.
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