JPY Trading Outlook


 
29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012

29th August

USD/JPY The correction of the overbought USD/JPY this week finally took prices to the 200-HMA ahead of the NY open amid worrying headlines from Ukraine that tripped stops below Tues's 103.75 low. Better-than-expected US GDP revisions buttressed the recovery from the 200-HMA, as N225 futures and Tsy yields rebounded. Exporter and spec profit taking offers are scattered between 103.85 and the Tues-Wed highs by 104.17. Overbought daily techs just today began to roll over, so still risk that the 38.2% of the 101.51-104.49 rise and the daily Tenkan at 103.35 will eventually be tested. Huge 102-103.25 expiries Fri. Weekly MOF flows showed the slow-but-steady outbound flow into foreign equities persisting, though bond flows revered the previous week's investment. Abe's new cabinet is gnashing some teeth over this yr's decision whether to raise the sales tax again next yr. Still working out the residual damage from April's hike. Kitchen sink of Japanese data releases tonight, including some early Aug CPI readings from Tokyo. BOJ's on hold at least until Oct regardless. EUR/JPY fell again on soft EZ data & Ukraine woes, despite doubts about more ECB easing next Thur.

28th August

USD/JPY The expected qtr-end and overbought consolidation of the USD/JPY uptrend persisted on Wed. Japanese exporter offers were touted by Wed & Tues's 104.16-17 highs along with light long spec profit-taking in the absence of fresh US news to goose prices higher. Few are willing to take on the 104.50 option barrier that stopped Monday's rally in its tracks at 104.49, at least not before getting a bead on key Japanese and EZ econ data due out at week's end. Friday will also bring US regional PMI results for Aug as a leading indicator for those timing Fed policy normalization. A Reuters poll shows the mkt split on whether the BOJ will up QQE this year. Bids are into Tues's 103.75 low and mixed by Monday's 103.50 low. 38.2% Fibo & daily Tenkan support are at 103.35/31. Yen crosses were mostly firmer, but Tues's EM rebound fizzled, while the dollar bloc sizzled, namely CAD, Kiwi and Oz. CAD/JPY surged beyond its weekly Cloud top at 95.90 for a 95.96 high. July's tries at a weekly closes above the Cloud top failed, so all eyes are on that going into Friday. New low for the week in EUR/JPY below the daily Kijun, but not a close below there yet.

27th August

USD/JPY Asia dumped USD/JPY, but the break below Monday's lows and assorted hourly chart supports quickly attracted dip bidders late in Asia and then in Ldn and NorAm trading. Demand grew in NY after assorted 2nd-tier US data releases beat expectations. Dip buyers are running into a bit more long USD profit-taking 104+ as month-end nears and as prices remain o/b. Today's high failed to clear the upper 21-d Bolli after being above it the preceding four sessions. Nevertheless, today's long-legged Candle shows demand is brisk on any discounts. 104.50 barrier defenses linger, along with this year's 105.45 high & the 61.8% of the '07-'12 slide at 105.49. There is a slew of Japanese data out Friday into mo-end, an event that would normally argue for bulging long USD positions being pruned. EUR/JPY clings to support by 137 amid speculation Draghi's JH speech will be a precursor to fast-tracking of ECB QE, beginning with already touted ABS, though the amounts there are modest at this stage. EZ CPI is also out this Friday and will tend to intensify or reduce talk of more easing at the Sep 4 ECB. The BOJ is seen steady at least until Oct.

26th August

USD/JPY The vast majority of the day's USD/JPY range had already been carved out by the time NY opened. Prices gapped up in Asia to 104.49 before running into offers ahead of 104.50 barriers. From there prices drifted back to NY afternoon lows from Friday (post Yellen and Draghi speeches) by 103.85. A soft US New Home Sales report put a quick end to a muted intraday rebound. Kuroda's speech Saturday maintained his pledge to forge ahead with QQE for as long as it takes to get wage-driven inflation well established. But with the USD/JPY heavily o/b coming into a holiday-thinned week with ltd data and prices within one yen of this year's 105.45 peak and 104.59, 61.8% retracement of the pre-post crisis slide, the urge to book some profits while awaiting breakouts above those hurdles is not insignificant. That urge would become more of a purge if prices were to fall below the 100-HMA & hourly Cloud base, last by 103.73. That Cloud base rises to 103.95 tonight, pressing prices to either resume their rise or correct. EUR/JPY was again rejected near the Aug 1 high on ECB QE, IFO & Ukraine concerns. July Corp Service Prices from Japan are out tonight.

25th August

USD/JPY With help from a USD-bullish interpretation of Fed Chair Yellen's JH speech and higher Tsy yields, USD/JPY cleared its Apr peak at 104.13 and the offers by 104. But both USD & Tsy yield gains receded in the afternoon, dragging USD/JPY back down to around unchanged for the day. Bidders noted at 103.50. With daily RSI in the 80s, prices spending much of the last three days trading above the upper 21-day Bolli band and historically elevated short spec yen positioning, some pre-weekend pullback was always a risk, if countered by de rigueur dip-buying and a lack of serious exporter selling pressure. Just as ECB's Draghi noted that the EUR should weaken further as a result of diverging ECB & Fed policies, the markets also assume that the Fed-BOJ contrast and no serious political pushback against QQE mean this year's 105.45 peak remains in play. There was a modest setback in the N225 futures and other equity indices Friday, but not enough to seriously undermine the USD/JPY's risk-related bid. EUR/JPY consolidated gains after hitting 138 & offers just ahead of the Aug 1 high, while AUD/JPY retained its post-breakout gains into the weekend.


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