JPY Trading Outlook
USD/JPY: Both USD/JPY and Nikkei futures broke below their up TLs off the '14 lows o/n. The Nikkei then fell through its March lows. Japanese importers are heavy bidders at 101.20, March low and into 101 and 100.80, though the 200-DMA is at 100.81 and the up trendline from last June was 100.90.
USD/JPY: Given the dovish FOMC minutes, the trendline held and prices dipped to 101.72, at which point the risk-on lift in the Nikkei offset the drop in 2 year yield spreads. Tuesdays 101.55 low is at the up TL off the Feb & March lows. Japanese dip buying interest persists, but would be at risk if the 101.20 Feb lows, 200-DMA and up TL from last June were to give way.
USD/JPY: The continuation of the post NFP made short USD/JPY relentless and even accelerated faster in London and NY session. The pair triggered stops below 102.90 and 102.64, by Fibo, Tenkan & Kijun lines. It broke the daily cloud base at 102.06, local bids at 102 and more stops at 101.90 and below the March 27th swing low at 101.71. The Nikkei collapsed overwhelmed fairly stead USDJPY yield spreads and nearly unchanged US stocks. For now, 101.20, March lows and weekly Kijun, looks crucial. If that get taken out, then we will only be left with 200 DMA and the up TL from last June lows in the 100.70.
USD/JPY: The pair tested support of 102.95 in Asia yesterday, the remainder of the sessions were above 103 area with a tight range in play 102.90-103.35. The pair remained relatively heavy as it was unable to break previous day's high. Today we will have the BOJ meeting, market awaits for any signals regarding to the impact of the sales tax hike and a possible QQE talk. Support is at 102.95, 50% FIb & Tenkan followed by the Kijun & 61.8% at 102.63/66.
USD/JPY: Both Treasury yields and US equities fell on Friday, most yen crosses were overbought on daily studies, adding to the yen's rebound. The pair initially reached to a high of 104.13 but slid all the way back down to 103.20 area. USD/JPY retraced 38.2% of the rise from March 27 at 103.20 after near doubled daily highs. 103.10 cloud top just below.
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