USD Trading Outlook
It will be a busy day for the AUD with retail sales in the morning (+0.4% MoM expected for November) and the RBA rate decision in the afternoon (no change in policy expected). The AUD/USD is not much changed from yesterday morning with the market focussing on other currencies. We saw a surge in the GBP during Asian trade followed by strong surges in the NZD and the USD. Strong data from the US should give the USD a bid-tone for the rest of the week pre-NFP.
The AUD is in for a busy week with the RBA meeting tomorrow and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday. The speculative market is sitting short of AUD, based on what I’m hearing from the big Prime Brokers, and if real-money funds start to reduce their selling of the AUD we could be in for a retracement. Unofficial inflation data, minor building data locally, and of course the HSBC China manufacturing PMI are all due for release today and that should ensure a busy session.
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