USD Trading Outlook


 
22.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012

23th May

AUD/USD Spec offers ahead of the daily cloud top and talk of Asian offers in the 0.9300 area stymied the post-China inspires AUD/USD rally. Bears in Europe jumped on the chance to sell and lowered the pair from 0.9274 towards 0.9240 into NY's open. Early NY action was mixed but a slight bounce took hold after above f/c jobless claim and below f/c US housing data. With the lift being very limited bears took hold again as the USD was firm on rising US yields. AUD/USD slid below the pre-PMI levels & hit a low of 0.9214. No further losses were made though as exporter bids and barrier protection ahead of 0.9200 was too much for bears to contend with. The pair sat just above the low late in the session. With nearly all of the May 21 bounce erased it looks like a break of 0.9200 is only a matter of time. Good stops are reported below that level and if run 0.9170/75 support (200-DMA, channel base, daily cloud base) is the first support to overcome. Beyond that there is little support until the 0.9050 area.

22th May

The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair was under pressure as US yields put the dollar on solid footings and it traded to a new trend low of 0.9208. Post minutes saw another spike up on USD but gains were quickly erased as US yield pulled back and AUD tested hourly resistance by 0.9240. Little pullback were seen. For today, the major risks event will be inflation expectation and China HSBC PMI due at 01:00GMT & 01:45GMT.

21th May

The Australian Dollar (AUD): Early Europe stop loss run through 0.9290 accelerated the drop on the pair after RBA minutes/Debelle comments also inspired the slide. A dip below 0.9250/60 was seen but bounce was only limited to 0.9270-75 area. Hawkish comments from Fed Plosser saw the 55-day MA pierced and a new low of 0.9241 was hit. Westpac consumer sentiment will be the main event for the AUD and May BOJ interest rate/MPS are the big event risks for Asia.

20th May

The Australian Dollar (AUD): Europe made two attempts to trade the pair below 0.9345 but failed and bounced to 0.9355 as NY walked in. NY pressed the pair higher to test hourly resistance near 0.9365/70 but was unable to push further. S&P warned that Australia's AAA rating could be at risk unless substantial budget cuts are made in coming years, made the AUD dived down to a low of 0.9326. Concerns in iron ore's break low from 103.70/105 support and t-l support off the 2009 low added pressure to the AUD. RBA minute is due later & little surprises are expected.

19th May

The Australian Dollar (AUD): The 21-DMA and local bid once again held the pair on the downside. EUR/AUD's rally reversed at 1.4700 and AUD/NZD's lift off 1.0820 towards 1.0850/55, saw the pair bounced from 0.9335 to 0.9365. A better than f/c U.S housing data only managed to push the pair to around 0.9355 and no further losses were seen. Limited data for this week therefore, impact on the pair is more likely to come from crosses again.


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