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USD Trading Outlook


 
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13th February

AUD/USD While the pair set a new low post-Oz jobs data bears were a bit disappointed in the follow through. A weak USD saw Europe begin covering shorts and the pair sat near 0.7680 into NY's open. Early action saw hourly support near 0.7665 tested but the dip was bought. The weaker than f/c US data sent the USD tumbling again. Pre-Oz jobs levels were tested. The rise accelerated as US bond yields took a nice dive into Europe's close. AUD/USD spiked to resistance in the 0.7775/85 zone. A rebound for the greenback saw a late day slide and the pair pulled back near 0.7740. Traders now look to RBA Gov. Stevens' speech to the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics. Stevens is likely to strike a dovish tone and if AUD is mentioned it's likely to be touted as overvalued again. Bear pressure should then return and we may see post-jobs levels retested. If Stevens can't ignite a bear push a decent short squeeze may take hold.

12th February

AUD/USD The pair suffered a one-two punch during European and NY trade. Just ahead of NY's open the Sydney Morning Herald ran a story quoting Bell Potter's Aitken forecasting AUD/USD to hit 0.6800.The pair dropped from the 0.7770 area towards 0.7715 before bouncing near 0.7735 as NY opened. An early lift saw old support near 0.7750 tested but it turned to resistance and bears took over again. Broad based USD strength then added weight to the pair. As USD/JPY broke above 120.00, AUD/USD slid to a new low of 0.7694. Bids into hourly support near 0.7685/90 halted the slide and the pair sat near 0.7715 late in the day. Traders now turn their focus to the Oz jobs report. A weak print will likely see bears up their game. Yield spreads are then likely to narrow further and pressure AUD/USD to the downside. A retest of the 2015 low likely ensues. A break of 0.7627 then opens the door to 0.7180/0.7240 support.

11th February

AUD/USD The pair couldn't stray too far from the 200-HMA for NY trading. Early on the pair the pair sat just beneath the 200-HMA. A quick spike to 0.7800/10 resistance (in sympathy with EUR/USD's lift) met sellers. A steady decline took hold with s-t macros being noted sellers and the pair slipped to a 0.7747 low. No further losses were possible as the USD's lift abated and bids into the Feb 5 low combined to stem the drop. Another lift above the 200-HMA ensued but the pair slipped back near 0.7765 late in the day. Traders are reluctant to push the pair too far as key OZ data is due. The Oz Jan jobs report is due Feb 12. IT's likely the pair will stick to the tight range until then. Should the number come in weak then we're likely to see a retest of the 2015 low into the weekend.

10th February

AUD/USD Short covering in Europe saw the 200-HMA cleared and the pair sit near 0.7810 as NY got going. Early NY saw a tight range but the short squeeze took control again. With USD bulls taking a rest after the US jobs report there was no real reason to push AUD/USD lower. Real money names were noted short covering culprits. The pair tested 0.7835/40 resistance and made a 0.7836 high. The afternoon saw the pair slip a bit as it held close to 0.7820 for the remainder of the session. Traders will look to Oz Q4 house prices and NAB's business conditions & confidence indictors. Should the housing data come in above f/c AUD might get a further boost as the RBA still has noted their concerns on home prices. Should the short covering intensify and Friday's high break it's likely a bigger squeeze is due. We might then see a test of key resistance in the 0.8025/55 zone heading into OZ jobs later this week.

9th February

AUD/USD Europe disappointed pots-RBA SOMP bears as they pressed the pair up to 0.7850/60 resistance with little pullback. Stops above 0.7860 seemed in jeopardy. The pair sat near 0.7850 into NY's open as the USD was a bit soft. An early NY bull rush saw the stops run and a high of 0.7877 hit. A pullback near 0.7850 ensued into the jobs data. The big beat and upward revisions immediately spiked AUD/USD lower. Support near 0.7780 was threatened but it held. JPY weakness saw AUD/JPY lift near 93.10. This likely prevented AUD/USD from falling further. Instead the pair lifted back near 0.7835. The JPY weakness abated and USD strength persisted. AUD/USD then steadily slid & tested below 0.7780. Little bounce was seen as the pair held near the day's low late in the session. Risks for the pair next week are RBA Gov. Steven's speech on Feb 9, Oz Q4 home p[rice index and Jan employment data. Housing may get a good look by the market as the RBA noted concerns on prices in the SOMP and post-cut statement.


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