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USD Trading Outlook

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18th July

AUD/USD Frustrated AUD bears continued to cover some of their short positions in European and NY hours. Sales of EUR and NZD vs. AUD worked together with soft US yields to keep AUD/USD generally firm through both session. Europe pushed the pair from near 0.9360 and hit it sit just below 0.9380 into NY's open. The soft US housing and permits data seemed to overshadow the improved claims data and had bond yields and the USD heavy. AUD/USD lifted to a 0.9392 high before it dipped to 0.9368 on the risk-off sentiment derived from the Malaysia Airline disaster. The dip faded though as US yields and the USD couldn't manage a bounce. Late in the day AUD/USD sat just above 0.9380. Bears have some worries as the bounce off the daily cloud & 0.9320/30 support zone on July 16 saw upside follow through today and daily RSI turns up from near o/s. A test of 0.9400/10 resistance may take place in Asia if bears can't retake control. A move above that zone may see s-t stops trigger and a test of key resistance near 0.9460 may take place.

17th July

AUD/USD Europe walked in and saw the pair couldn't break through 0.9320/30 support or the thin daily cloud and began some light short covering. From the 0.9329 low they pushed the pair near 0.9345 as NY got going. NY continued the slow & steady squeeze even as AU-US 2 year yield spreads narrowed further. The squeeze saw a NY high near 0.9365. Aiding the lift was pressure in EUR/AUD as EUR was offered across the board. EUR/USD tested support near 1.4440 and held just above that support late in the day. AUD/USD's squeeze relented a bit in NY's afternoon and the pair sat near 0.9360 towards the close. Bears are gaining some confidence as daily & weekly RSIs weigh and spreads narrow. They may get a boost later as NAB Q2 Business Confidence is due. RBA Assistant Governor Edey speaks as well. It's possible comments echoing recent rhetoric from other RBA staff might be echoed. A break below 0.9320/30 puts bears fully in control. They would then target the 0.9195/0.9205 area where the 200-DMA and a series of daily lows sit.

16th July

AUD/USD Once Europe got going and saw the boost from the RBA minutes faded and the improved China loan data was shrugged off they smacked AUD/USD down fairly hard. Bears took the pair from near the 21-DMA (0.9398) to just below 0.9360 before the pair bounced near 0.9375 into NY's open. Light short covering persisted in early NY as the headline US retail sales number missed. The pair stayed firm into Yellen's testimony & sat near 0.9380. Her prepared text stated a high degree of accommodation is appropriate. The USD spiked lower and AUD/USD lifted but couldn't breach 0.9400. The pair began giving back gains as US yields gave back earlier losses and Yellen's Q&A session tilted a bit hawkish. AUD/USD's slide gathered pace and hit a 0.9348 low that matched the 55-DMA. A bounce ensued as US yields pulled back fro their highs and stocks were firm. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9370 to leave it down over 0.20% on the day. Traders now look to China's Q2 GDP later. A soft reading might send AUD/USD through the 55-DMA and below key support near 0.9320.

15th July

AUD/USD Numerous attempts to rally AUD/USD above the 21-DMA (0.9401) in European and NY hours failed. Bulls were reluctant to push the pair too far ahead of the RBA minutes for fear the content will hold some dovish comments that reflect recent Stevens rhetoric. NY walked in with the pair sitting just above the 21-DMA and steadily applied pressure throughout the session. Lifts in US bond yields had the USD generally firm. AUD/USD was pressed to a NY low of 0.9387 and the pair sat just above that low late in the day. Traders now look to the RBA minutes for their next cue. Should rhetoric over AUD strength be ramped up, AUD/USD should stay heavy in Asia & Europe. Traders then look to Yellen's testimony to see if she gives any hawkish hints. It's unlikely she will but if they should get dropped further pressure on
AUD/USD will be applied. We may then see a test of key s-t support near 0.9320. A break there should accelerate the slide from June's high and put the 0.9200 support zone in play.

14th July

AUD/USD The steady ascent off the July 10 low persisted in Europe as s-t bears became frustrated. AUD/USD was pushed to just above 0.9400 as NY got going. the short covering remained through the early NY hours and a high of 0.9409 was hit. All of the day's gains were quickly erased though as The Australian posted an interview with the RBA's Stevens. http://bit.ly/1q3GMt2 He warned of complacency about Australia's econ growth and noted the AUD was quite high base on most standard metrics. The pair dived to a 0.9376 low. A small bounce had the pair near 0.9385 late in the day. downside risks are extant as last week's bearish engulfing candle remains valid and a long upper wick forms on this week's candle. Next week's event risk may see bears get their wishes. RBA minutes and NAB's Q2 business confidence data are due. A dovish RBA and poor confidence data could lead to a test of key 0.9320/30 support. If broken the recent slide likely accelerates and the 200-DMA and May low near 0.9200 will then be in play.

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