USD Trading Outlook


 
16.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012

13th June

EUR/USD - under pressure

The pair has validated a falling wedge pattern and has broken below the 200-day moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI is badly directed and not oversold. Further weakness is therefore expected below 1.3780 with 1.3450 as a first target (previous overlap) and 1.33 in extension (November 2013 low and strong LT support). A third target is set at 1.31 (September 2013 low). Only a break above 1.3780 (horizontal resistance) will turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.40 (last top) and a second one set at 1.4245 (OCtober 2011 top).

10th June

USD/JPY and the JPY crosses traded soggy in Asia. Japanese exporter sales into the Tokyo fix outweighed Gotobi buys from Japanese importers. This and Nikkei sogginess saw most pairs lower. USD/JPY fell back from 102.60, just shy of yesterday’s 102.65 high, to 102.31. Bids returned in the 102.30-40 window but were mostly absorbed. More trail down and especially from 102.10 and into the 101-handle. Stops are mixed in sub-102.25 and 102.00-10. Offers remain in place from around 102.70 and trail up. Large vanilla option expirations at 102.50 failed to anchor the market but could come into play into the New York cut. EUR/JPY fell back from 139.41 to 139.07. Some stops were tripped on the break below 139.25. More are eyed sub-139.00 (Ichi tenkan at 139.03) and 138.65 (200-DMA at 138.68). GBP/JPY fell back modestly from 172.32 to 171.92. AUD/JPY pushed back from 95.92 late in New York and 95.90 early in Asia to 95.64 but remains very much in its recent uptrend. NZD/JPY see-sawed between 86.91-87.17, perhaps not as bid as AUD/JPY but holding its own and moving higher from 85.85 on May 29.


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