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USD Trading Outlook


 
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12th December

AUD/USD Europe weighed on the pair early doors and the pair's slide picked up the pace after the break of lows seen ahead of the Oz jobs report. A quick move down to 0.8235/40 support met buyers. The pair bounced towards 0.8290 into NY's open. Early NY saw pressure applied as an AFR story noted RBA's Stevens wants the pair near 0.7500 http://bit.ly/1sfRBtQ . A quick spike down to 0.8214 ensued but the pair bounced nicely after the market realized Stevens also gave some push back on calls for rate cuts. The pair neared 0.8280 but then remained heavy thereafter as US claims and retail sales data were upbeat. The pair slipped a bit and sat just below 0.8250 late in the day. There is no Oz data later so traders are likely to take cues from China's Nov IP and retail sales data. If the reports are soft like CPI was earlier this week, AUD/USD should trade heavy. We might then see 0.8200 tested. Should that level break the door is then open to the May 2010 low at 0.8066.

11th December

AUD/USD A tight range held in Europe after the bounce post-China CPI. The pair traded in the 0.8310/40 range and sat near the upper limit heading into NY's open. Early NY saw the pair push a bit high as the USD was generally soft. The pair hit 0.8348 but the NY gains began to erode. Sour risk sentiment emerged and JPY strength came along with it. AUD/JPY dropped from the 99.45 area and pierced 98.00. This dragged AUD/USD from NY's high down to intra-day support in the 0.8280/90 area. The pair held near that support late in the day as the market now awaits the Oz jobs data. A weak result likely gets bears encouraged again as calls for RBA rates cut are likely to be upped. Soft Oz jobs should see yield spreads narrow further to add weight to AUD/USD. A retest of the 0.8200/20 support should then take hold.

10th December

AUD/USD Europe ignored the soft NAB data and instead focused on USD weakness. They rallied AUD/USD from the 0.8232 area towards 0.8285 as NY got going. NY applied bull pressure as US bond yields saw a nice slip to drive USD/JPY off a cliff. AUD/USD lifted right out of the gate in NY, ran stops above the 0.8310/25 resistance area and hit a 0.8371 high. The USD and US bond yields staged a comeback after Europe's close though. This saw AUD/USD give back most of NY's gains as the pair sat just below 0.8310 late in the day. Traders will now focus on Westpac Dec consumer confidence and China CPI data for Nov. Soft results should remind traders that the global econ is shaky and see risk turn heavy. AUD/USD might then give up more of today's gains and take another look at the new trend low before the Oz jobs data hits.

9th December

AUD/USD Early Europe saw the pair near 0.8260 but bears were reluctant to press their luck. USD/JPY went on a slow & steady decline and that inspires some broad based USD long covering. AUD/USD lifted in Europe's morning and tested old support/now resistance at 0.8315 before dipping below 0.8300 into NY's open. The pair held to a tight range in NY as it oscillated in the 0.8285/0.8315 range even as the USD was generally soft for the NY session. With calls for the RBA to cut being upped (DB now expects 50bps of cuts in 2015) AUD/USD is likely to have a tough time mounting any sustained rallies. Unless Oz's Nov employment report presents a big topside surprise to help reverse the recent spread narrowing, it's likely bears continue to fade the rallies. Some s-t technical bounces may take hold to unwind oversold conditions but those lifts will only present opportunities for longer-term bears. Should the Oz jobs data miss to the downside the pair likely makes a quick move to sub-0.8100 levels and ultimately below 0.8000.

8th December

AUD/USD The pair held a very tight range in Europe's morning ahead of the US jobs data. 0.8361/87 defined the action and the pair sat just above 0.8370 into the jobs data. The solid data print sent the USD &US bond yields soaring. AUD/USD made a quick dive to 0.8320 before any type of bounce took hold. A lift towards 0.8345 met sellers and the pair steadily slid lower for the remainder of the session. The pair made a new trend low that matched the July 2010 low at 0.8315. Very little bounce was seen and the pair sat near 0.8325 late in the day. The upbeat jobs data increases the odds of Fed rate lift-off in Q1 which would bolster the view of diverging CB mon pol as talk of RBA cuts has been upped this week. With AUD/USD closing the week near critical support it seems only a matter of time before it breaks and the pair makes a run for the May 2010 low at 0.8066.


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