USD Trading Outlook
AUD/USD The doji formed on Wednesday saw upside follow through today as Europe pushed AUD/USD just above 0.7680 into NY's open due to broad based USD weakness. NY kept the pair bid early on and then spiked the pair up on the disappointing retail sales data. The rally touched the 10-DMA and hit a high of 0.7731. No further gains were possible though. Offers into the 0.7740/50 region loomed and the market didn't want to push it's luck. The USD began clawing back losses as US bond yields firmed a bit. AUD/USD slid from the high in NY's afternoon as the USD lifted and commodities turned heavy. The pair tested intra-day support near 0.7680 and sat nearby late in the day. There is no major data due in Asia's session so positioning might be the drive heading into the weekend. The market remains short AUD and traders may now be thinking the Fed won't be lifting rates anytime soon as data has disappointed. The current short squeeze might persist until the Fed results are released March 18.
AUD/USD The slide in Asia didn't progress much in Europe. The pair held above 0.7600 for most of Europe's morning as EUR's collapse drove EUR/AUD below 1.3900 and prevent AUD/USD from sliding. NY walked in with AUD/USD near 0.7610 and the pair lifted above 0.7630 as the USD wabs soft early on. The gains were erased though as the USD recovered a bit and EUR's slide stalled slightly. This saw AUD/USD bears that were looking to sell a rally come to market and drive the pair to a new trend low of 0.7561. Some profit taking in the afternoon saw the pair near 0.7580 late in the day. Traders now look to Oz March consumer inflation expectations and the Feb jobs report. Should both data points give soft results the market will up the chances of the RBA cutting soon. AUD/USD will come under pressure and bring the pair closer to key support in the 0.7180/0.7240 zone.
AUD/USD Bear momentum in Asia carried over in Europe. AUD/USD set a new trend low of 0.7603 on the soft Oz NAB readings and broad based USD strength. A slight bounce had the pair near 0.7635 into NY's open. The pair spiked above 0.7680 as USD/JPY collapsed from above 122.00 to sub-121.00 levels. AUD/USD's gains didn't last long though as general risk-off sentiment ensued. Weak stocks and bond yields combined with JPY strength to drive AUD/JPY below 92.30. This dragged AUD/USD from NY's high towards 0.7610. Little bounce was seen as the pair sat near 0.7620 late in the day. Traders have March Westpac consumer sentiment data (prior 8.0%) and a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Kent to contend with later. A weak data print should weigh on AUD. If Kent should discuss AUD it'll likely get hit as Kent will likely try to jawbone the currency lower. s it stands now bears have control. The pair broke below the bear flag bas and the February low. Longer-term bears now target the 0.7250 area which sits near the May 2009 low
AUD/USD Hourly resistance in the 0.7740/45 area stalled two short covering rallies that occurred in European and NY trading. NY's lift barely made it to 0.7740 as broad based USD strength was the theme for the session. The pair got a bit more weight added to it a Terry McCrann article in the herald Sun http://bit.ly/1KLNKgi noted that the Fed will be a bigger factor in AUD/USD's direction that the RBA. This had the pair sit neared the lower end of its 0.7706/40 range heading into the close. the Asian session has NAB's Feb business conditions and confidence data as well as China's Feb CPI 7 PPI readings. Soft results for both data sets could see AUD/USD break below the bear flag base and make a run at the 2015 low.
AUD/USD A quiet European morning was disrupted upon NY's opening. The pair near 0.7810 as NY got going. Broad based USD sales by those expecting a weak US jobs report boosted AUD/USD to a 0.7846 high. The gains evaporated in short order after the NFP beat and U rate dropped. AUD/USD slid, with very little in the way of bounces, and took out key support near 0.7740/50. The pair neared 0.7715 before any pullback was seen. Some give backs for USD gains allowed the pair to lift near 0.7745 but bears emerged and the pair went on to make a session low of 0.7706. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.7720. There isn't much major Oz data next week but China sees a good amount coming out. AUD traders will likely take their cues from that data. Should the results show China's econ growth slowing further AUD is likely to trade heavy. AUD/USD might then make a run for the 2015 low next week.
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