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USD Trading Outlook


 
6.5.2015-4.5.2015 1.5.2015-27.4.2015 24.4.2015-20.4.2015 17.4.2015-14.4.2015 9.4.2015-6.4.2015 3.4.2015-30.3.2015 27.3.2015-23.3.2015 20.3.2015-16.3.2015 13.3.2015-9.3.2015 6.3.2015-2.3.2015 27.2.2015-23.2.2015 20.2.2015-16.2.2015 13.2.2015-9.2.2015 6.2.2015-2.2.2015 30.1.2015-28.1.2015 22.1.2015-21.1.2015 15.1.2015-12.1.2015 8.1.2015-8.1.2015 12.12.2014-8.12.2014 5.12.2014-1.12.2014 27.11.2014-24.11.2014 21.11.2014-17.11.2014 13.11.2014-10.11.2014 6.11.2014-4.11.2014 31.10.2014-27.10.2014 24.10.2014-20.10.2014 17.10.2014-13.10.2014 10.10.2014-8.10.2014 3.10.2014-29.9.2014 26.9.2014-22.9.2014 19.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013

24th April

AUD/USD 
• Bears rule inEurope's morning, push pair to 200-HMA but can't go further
• Early NY sees USD rally weaken, intra-day bears begin covering
• Broad based USD weakness takes hold on soft US data
• AUD/USD lifts to 0.7790, USD slide abates a bit &pair dips
• Sits ~0.7775 late in the day; No data o/n so action likely limited

23th April

EUR/USD
• Soft USD in Europe sees 1.0800 breached, gains fade into NY open
• Recovery for USD begins slide, rally in US yields accelerates it
• Pair tests 1.0700/10 zone, bears can't push further and bounce ensues
• Rally in German bond yields aids lift to 1.0745/50 area
• Pair near 1.0740 late in the day, choppy mkt to persist
• No major EZ or US data/event risk to drive pair until Friday

USD/JPY
• USDJPY up only modestly despite Nikkei outperformance
• Stock futures higher by 0.65%; accelerates above 20k
• USDJPY languishing mid-range; price action poor given Nikkei
• Run at 120.00 fails; 40dma res at 120.04

22th April

AUD/USD
• Losses post-RBA minutes erode in Europe after limited break of 200-HMA
• Short covering lift has pair near 0.7720 into NY open
• JPY weakness lifts AUD/JPY ~92.65, AUD/USD follows, tests 0.7760 res
• Upped risk sentiment aids lift, gains can't hold, stock slips & US yields rise
• Pair slips and threatens 200-HMA late in the day
• Oz Q1 CPI to garner all attention in Asia, above f/c data should lift AUD

21th April

AUD/USD
• Gains from China RRR cut fade in Europe due to USD’s bid
• Sub-0.7780 into NY open, slide persisted despite Dudley comments
• Stevens’ AUD & rate tips sink pair sharply, 55-DMA & cloud base pierced
• Bids into 0.7700 & 21-DMA prevent further losses, 0.7706 low hit
• RBA meeting minutes the risk in Asia, likely to be dovish

20th April

AUD/USD
• Rally in Europe's morning sees 76.4 Fib of 0.7939-0.7534 hit
• Ends up the high and drifts lower into NY open, more weight added in NY
• Broad USD rally ensues post-CPI AUD/USD spikes down then drifts to 0.7646
• No further losses as USD gains erode, lift ~0.7780 late in day
• Gains likely tempered by AUD/NZD slide to 1.0110
• RBA minutes, Stevens speech & Oz CPI risks next week


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