USD Trading Outlook


 
18.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012

6th December

Currencies

  • The euro (EUR) moved higher after Mario Draghi’s conference and is now range bound around 1.3666 against the dollar. The euro may reverse yesterday’s gains should stronger employment data come from the US. The Fed may consider tapering sooner if unemployment shows strong signs of decline.
  • The US dollar (USD) has corrected some losses against the Japanese yen. The pair moved to 102.12 ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payrolls release. A stronger dollar may emerge should a number come out greater than 180 thousand this afternoon.

Equities

  • The US 500 (SPI) has ended weaker, two days after the ADP NFP release on Wednesday. The index is currently trading just above 1787 and is expecting the release of the upcoming Non-Farm employment change for future direction.

Commodities

  • WTI Crude (OIL) is currently ranging at 97.30 dollars per barrel. The crude may test resistance at 97.95, alternatively, support lies at 97.00 and 96.30.

Mover & Shaker with FX Options

  • Gold (XAU) may experience wild volatility on the Non-Farm payroll release. The precious metal is currently settled at 1229. 

  • Option traders may consider constructing Long Straddle Strategies on Gold to capitalise on higher volatility this afternoon.
  • The Long Straddle is constructed by purchasing an at-the-money Call and an at-the-money Put option on Gold, and may prove profitable if the metal’s price moves significantly higher or lower.

4th December

The AUD saw some very heavy turnover yesterday, rallying initially to .9130 after the retail sales data where it ran into a barrage of selling. The inevitable sell-off then ensued and AUD/USD dipped to .9065 after the RBA mentioned the currency in its statement. Strong protection ahead of a barrier option at .9050 held firm despite a number of tests. Today should be another busy day with GDP data likely to have a short-term impact (but with no more RBA meeting until February, any impact will be short-lived).

3rd December

It will be a busy day for the AUD with retail sales in the morning (+0.4% MoM expected for November) and the RBA rate decision in the afternoon (no change in policy expected). The AUD/USD is not much changed from yesterday morning with the market focussing on other currencies. We saw a surge in the GBP during Asian trade followed by strong surges in the NZD and the USD. Strong data from the US should give the USD a bid-tone for the rest of the week pre-NFP.

2nd December

The AUD is in for a busy week with the RBA meeting tomorrow and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday. The speculative market is sitting short of AUD, based on what I’m hearing from the big Prime Brokers, and if real-money funds start to reduce their selling of the AUD we could be in for a retracement. Unofficial inflation data, minor building data locally, and of course the HSBC China manufacturing PMI are all due for release today and that should ensure a busy session.


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