USD Trading Outlook

28.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012

1st November

The EUR finally started to move overnight after lower than expected CPI and higher than expected unemployment put further easing policies back on the table. The falling EUR/USD had a knock-on effect on other major pairs and AUD/USD fell to test the previous day’s lows below .9450. Australian PPI data will be followed at lunch-time by HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI so we should have a fairly busy day.

31th October

The Federal Reserve made no changes to either policy or statement at their overnight meeting and this caused a slight blip in the USD. The market had anticipated that the statement might be adjusted to be slightly more dovish. The other big event for the AUD was a large option expiry at .9500 during the NY session which guaranteed a 10 pip range either side for much of the night. The NZD has been quite volatile over the last 24 hours, dropping sharply on some Moody ratings headlines and rising after a more hawkish RBNZ. Australian business confidence and the BOJ rate decision are on today’s calendar.

30th October

Not unexpectedly, Glenn Stevens did his best to talk down the AUD/USD yesterday and this had quite far-reaching repercussions. The market initially targeted stops in the AUD/USD below .9510 and this also put pressure on other pairs like GBP/USD, which gapped sharply lower when stops were tripped below 1.6100. Everything is somehow related in the FX market. There are no major events on today’s economic calendar but we should get some movement as traders adjust positions ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

29th October

It’s been another very quiet 24 hours in the FX market and the big storms in Europe undoubtedly kept many participants away from their screens. The RBA Governor will be giving a speech this morning and we should watch for headlines which might affect the AUD (no doubt he will try and talk it down a bit). I can’t help feeling that we are soon due for another big move and I expect the focus to remain on the USD; either big levels hold against the other majors or the greenback will fall another 5% before year’s end.

28th October

We’ve had a quiet opening to the trading week apart from a 30 pip spike higher in USD/JPY (caused by technical buying after the failure to close below the well-watched 200-dma). Risk appetite remains remarkably resilient across most financial markets and overall USD bearish sentiment is still intact. New Zealand is enjoying a long weekend thanks to their Labour Day holiday and the economic calendar looks quite bare.

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