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USD Trading Outlook

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25th July

AUD/USD After the post-China PMI inspired gains faded in Asia, Europe made sure they were completely erased as the pair slipped towards 0.9430 before bouncing near 0.9445 into NY's open. NY applied bearish pressure on the pair as the USD was generally bid and the EUR crosses firmed. EUR/AUD bounced off hourly support near 1.4250 and ascended towards 1.4310/15 to aid in further losses for AUD/USD. The pair slid early in NY and accelerated a bit upon breaking below 0.9430 after US claims data came in better than f/c to send US bond yield higher. A low of 0.9410 was hit. A meager bounce towards 0.9430 was repelled after the IMF lowered global growth forecasts which made particular note of China slowing. Late in the day the pair sat just above the day's low. Recent longs may have some concerns. The TL off the Oct high capped another rally and the daily RSI diverged on today's high. A retest of key s-t support near 0.9320/30 cannot be ruled out.

24th July

AUD/USD Europe added to Asia's gains and pushed AUD/USD to a 0.9455 high ahead of NY's open. Asian offers into the July 10 high aided to stem the rise. The pair sat just below that high as NY got going. Early action saw a dip towards 0.9435 but buyers were waiting and the pair returned to the day's highs later in the afternoon. Buys of AUD vs. GBP, EUR and NZD aided to keep AUD/USD elevated for the NY session. Some stops are noted above 0.9465 and may be targeted in Asia if the pair doesn't see a meaningful pullback soon. If the stops are run the July high is then in play. There is not much in the way of major OZ data due until the end of July so cues for trading will come from geopolitical an foreign sources mostly. For now the bulls have the edge as yield spreads widen and day/week RSIs provide positive momentum. They have work to do though as the 0.9460/00 zone sees some decent resistance. Old and new T-Ls, the July high and the 76.4 Fib of 0.9758-0.8660 sit in that zone. If broken, longer-term bulls will be looking at the October high.

22th July

AUD/USD The pair held to the lower end of the day's limited rage for the NY session. Offers in the 0.9400/10 region loomed and with fairly significant risk events coming up bulls weren't in a mod to push. the pair was pinned below 0.9385 for most of ht NY session as traders awaited speeches RBA Chief Stevens' Anika Foundation and Asst governor Debelle's due later. Traders don't expect a great deal of mention of the AUD in the speeches but any mention of AUD is will likely be an effort to jawbone it lower. After the speeches traders then focus their attention to US CPI and AU Q2 CPI. US inflation is expected unch while AU is f/c to tick a bit higher. Bears will need the stars to align and see US above f/c and AU below estimates to gain control of AUD/USD. If they get their wish, it's likely 0.9320/30 support will see a serious test. If broken the 200-DMA and May low will get tested. If the CPI results end up being bullish for AUD it's likely 0.9450/60 resistance and the July high gets tested.

21th July

AUD/USD Europe rallied AUD/USD towards 0.9390/95 resistance after another attempt to break below the daily cloud and 0.9320/30 support failed in Asia. Early NY was quiet until Canadian CPI came out above f/c. commodity currencies went bid across the board after the data. AUD/USD spiked up to 0.9411 and shook out some weak hands. The pair quickly reversed those gains though as the USD went bid against most of the major currencies with EUR & GBP the biggest losers. from the high, AUD/USD dived down to 0.9366 but no further losses were possible. EUR/USD's break below 1.3500 saw minimal follow through and risk sentiment improved to send US equities higher. AUD/USD climbed for the rest of the session and sat near 0.9395 late in the day. AUD/USD bears are frustrated and may get squeezed further as daily RSI turns up and the cloud cannot be broken. A long lower wick on the weekly candle suggests bulls are putting up a fight as well. Stops are noted above today's high and if run 0.9455/60 is targeted. RBA speeches from Stevens & Debelle plus Oz Q2 CPI present risks to bullish sentiment next week.

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