USD Trading Outlook
It was an excellent day for the AUD/USD bears, with the post-jobs data rally giving excellent intraday selling opportunities. The NY session was extremely USD-bullish, with rumours, decent economic data and comments from the Fed all conspiring to send the USD through the roof. USD/JPY was the big mover, taking out an important physical and psychological barrier at 100.00 and the Yen crosses should be busy today.
The RBA monetary policy statement will be released this afternoon.
The main movements over the last 24 hours have been in the crosses with firstly the NZD getting hit pretty hard after comments from the RBNZ’s Wheeler and then the EUR rallied after less-than-terrible economic data. The market is structurally still long of NZD and short of EUR, so movements like we saw overnight might become more common.
Today’s main event is the release of Australian jobs data and this should create some volatility later this morning. Chinese CPI will also be released around the same time so watch out for the double-whammy of data.
AUD/JPY returned to the fore on Friday night after a better than expected non-farm payrolls number in the US. The bears who had been trying to force AUD/USD below 1.0220 for the entire day on Friday were forced to cover and both AUD/USD and USD/JPY rallied in tandem as the risk-trades came back into focus.
There are still some Asian golden-week holidays today and most of the action in the AUD will be positional adjustment ahead of the RBA tomorrow. We also have important domestic data, led by retail sales, so it should be a busy session.
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