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USD Trading Outlook


 
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3rd January

Currencies

  • The euro (EUR) continues to slid against the US dollar (USD) and looks that it found a strong support at 1.3635. The pair looks that lost its bullish momentum and may be seen lower in the short term.
  • The US dollar (USD) declined after recording new five year high at 105.43 down to 104.06 against the Japanese yen (JPY). The Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, speaks today at 19:30 GMT and his speech may move the markets.

Equities

  • The US 500 (SPI) slid down to 1820 after reaching its new record high at 1843.The index is now trading around 1823 and we may see a rebound throughout the day.

Commodities

  • WTI crude (OIL) moved even lower touching a monthly low at 95.12 US dollars per barrel. The Crude oil inventories will be released today with forecasts at -2.3 million barrels of stockpiles.

Mover & Shaker with FX Options

  • The British Pound (GBP) recorded a two year high at 1.6603 before dropping almost 200 pips against the US dollar (USD). The cable dropped after the UK Manufacturing PMI came out worse than expected. On the calendar, the UK construction PMI due at 09:30 GMT and another worse than expected figure may drive the pair lower.

  • Options traders may consider constructing a Long Straddle on GBPUSD in order to benefit from unexpected moves in either direction.
  • The Long Straddle can be constructed by buying an at-the-money Call and Put option.

23th December

Currencies

  • The euro (EUR) has rebounded against the US dollar (USD) after touching 1.3636 on Friday. The single currency is currently at 1.3681 and may be looking at resistance at 1.3757..
  • The US dollar (USD) remains confident against the Japanese yen (JPY) after having reached a five year high at 104.63. The dollar has sincere retraced to 104.034 but may continue its bullish trajectory over the holiday season.

Equities

  • US stocks opened the week higher as Christmas nears and Wall Street remains bullish. The US 500 (SPI) has touched 1820.60, an all-time high before correcting to 1819.51.

Commodities

  • Brent Crude (BRT) has picked up over the past few days from 109.35 to 111.90 as fears of another supply disruption shake oil markets.

Mover & Shaker with FX Options

  • The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US dollar (USD) over the weekend. The pair has fallen from a high of 0.9754 to 0.8823 since October as the economy follows a natural depreciation following lower demand for its raw materials.

  • Options Traders expecting a weaker Aussie may consider constructing Bear Put spreads on the pair.
  • The Bear Put spread is constructed by buying an at-the-money Put and selling an out-of-the-money Put option on the AUDUSD.


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