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USD Trading Outlook


 
1.7.2015-29.6.2015 26.6.2015-22.6.2015 19.6.2015-15.6.2015 4.6.2015-1.6.2015 29.5.2015-26.5.2015 22.5.2015-18.5.2015 15.5.2015-11.5.2015 8.5.2015-4.5.2015 1.5.2015-27.4.2015 24.4.2015-20.4.2015 17.4.2015-14.4.2015 9.4.2015-6.4.2015 3.4.2015-30.3.2015 27.3.2015-23.3.2015 20.3.2015-16.3.2015 13.3.2015-9.3.2015 6.3.2015-2.3.2015 27.2.2015-23.2.2015 20.2.2015-16.2.2015 13.2.2015-9.2.2015 6.2.2015-2.2.2015 30.1.2015-28.1.2015 22.1.2015-21.1.2015 15.1.2015-12.1.2015 8.1.2015-8.1.2015 12.12.2014-8.12.2014 5.12.2014-1.12.2014 27.11.2014-24.11.2014 21.11.2014-17.11.2014 13.11.2014-10.11.2014 6.11.2014-4.11.2014 31.10.2014-27.10.2014 24.10.2014-20.10.2014 17.10.2014-13.10.2014 10.10.2014-8.10.2014 3.10.2014-29.9.2014 26.9.2014-22.9.2014 19.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013

8th May

AUD/USD
• Europe sells Oz jobs spike, EUR/AUD lift ~1.4350 weighs, ~0.7955 at NY open
• USD strength emerges after jobless claims, applies more bear pressure
• Steady slide sees pause near 200-HMA, support eventually gives way
• S-T stops run & 0.7890 low made, late USD weakness sees lift ~0.7905
• RBA SMP due, likely dovish, if explicit more cuts due AUD to get hit
• AUD/USD may then test support in 0.7800 area

7th May

AUD/USD
• Bid from Asia carries over into NY open, ~0.7985 as NY gets going
• Bulls press further on ADP miss as US Tsy yields & USD sink
• Stops >0.8020 run & new trend high (0.8040) made
• Yield & USD rebound see steady sales, some adding to shorts
• Near 0.7945/55 support late in day, Oz jobs risk due
• If upbeat April high to be tested ahead of RBA SMP

6th May

AUD/USD
• Pair c200-HMA at NY open, USD bid in Europe, erodes post-RBA gains
• USD hit on worse than f/c Mar trade data, post-RBA spike high tested
• ISM services beat dips pair ~0.7890, dip bought as USD tumble resumes
• Mkt ignores rising US Tsy yields & pushes pair to 0.7955 high
• Little pullback, Techs lean bullish, bull engulfing candle, RSI biased up
• Oz retail sales & China services PMI the risks in Asia

5th May

AUD/USD
• Short covering in holiday thinned Europe mkt after 50 Fib of 0.7534-0.8077 test
• NY continues slow & steady ascent as USD lift stalls & commodities lift
• S-T res ~0.7850/60 tested ahead of RBA, mkt prices >75% chance of cut
• If no cut shorts scramble to cover then April high in play
• Some talk that if cut made will be last, possible big bounce after initial drop
• Mkt remains net short AUD so potential for decent squeeze is extant

4th May

AUD/USD
• Upped chances of RBA cut next week kept rallies tempered in Europe
• NY applies bear pressure early even after ISM & TR/U. Mich data miss
• UST yields rally and USD follows, AUD/USD clears 200-HMA
• Slide accelerates & 0.7800 neared, p/t bounce sees ~0.7840 late in day
• RBA main risk next week, if no cut big short squeeze likely


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