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Currency Trading Summary 04-May-2016

Written by Fanfan Zhang

A relatively quiet Asian session while the EUR retreats after climbing above $1600 levels on Tuesday on the back of weaker US dollar. The positive data showing improvement in Manufacturing in Eurozone and Germany also helped the single currency to gain momentum. While the Market waits for the ADP – NonFarm report today, the Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to create a lot of volatility on Friday as it might be able to give an indication about the Fed Rate Hike prospects for this year.


  • Oil and GOLD: After showing a limited movement on Monday, the US crude oil prices fell yesterday on the back of renewed talks about the OPEC increasing their oil supply. Moreover some reports show that we might see more oil production out of Saudi Arabia, Iran and the North Sea adding to supply amid concerns about demand. Oil production in OPEC member countries increased by 0.9M barrels per day in 2016, and it fell by 0.4M barrels per day in Non-OPEC countries. Gold fell from its fifteen month high due to the talks of Fed rate hike as early as this June. After yesterday’s FOMC Member Mester talked up Fed rate hike prospects for this year the US dollar gained while putting gold under pressure.


  • Stocks: U.S. stock prices continue to fall on Tuesday due to weaker oil prices, Dollar index dived to as low as 91.91 yesterday but recovered for a while. Tuesday’s declines followed the fall in oil prices, a drop in Chinese manufacturing and a forecast that growth in Europe this year will be weaker than previously expected.


  • Currencies: The USD gained strongly after the FED pointed towards a Rate Hike possibility in June. San Francisco Fed president John Williams said the economic outlook is "pretty optimistic" giving a much needed boost to the US dollar. The GBP shed its gains after the US dollar recovered. The cable is trading at 1.4545 at the time of this writing while the traders wait for the Construction PMI data due later today and services PMI data due tomorrow. The AUDUSD fell sharply during Tuesday’s session, crashing below the 0.75 support level while the market looks forward to the Australian Trade Balance tomorrow and the RBA monitory policy on Friday
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