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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report
Currency Trading Summary 28-Jul-2015

Written by Andreas Tjahja

Market Comment


The S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.43% or 23.782pts to 5589.89 (day range: 5589.9 - 5538) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5569) and below its 50d MA (@ 5594). 56% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 53% the previous session) and 45% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 42%).

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar fell sharply against its major counterparts on Monday. On the economic data front, Durable Goods Orders were up 3.4% MoM in June vs -2.1% the prior month. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index fell 4.6 % MoM in July vs a fall of 7% the previous month.

The Euro rose against its major pairs. euro zone M3 money supply growth was 5% YoY in June, the same pace than in May. It was expected to be +5.1%. German IFO business climate index was up to 108 in July from 107.5 the month before. Economists anticipated 107.2.

The Australian dollar was mixed, rising against the USD and CAD while dropping against the EUR, JPY and GBP.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1114 1.18 -8.13
GBP/USD 1,5588 0.52 0.07
USD/JPY 123,17 -0.51 2.92
EUR/CHF 1,0647 0.78 -11.37
EUR/JPY 136,9100 0.73 -5.36
EUR/GBP 0,7130 0.73 -8.19
AUD/NZD 1,1009 -0.57 5.05
AUD/JPY 89,9760 -0.21 -7.97
EUR/AUD 1,5217 0.93 2.75
USD/CAD 1,3021 -0.20 12.04
USD/CHF 0,9579 -0.53 -3.67
AUD/USD 0,7304 0.30 -10.65
NZD/USD 0,6635 0.87 -14.90

Currency Updates:

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7340
Our preference Short positions below 0.734 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.734 look for further upside with 0.738 & 0.7415 as targets.
Comment The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

NZD/USD – further weakness
The pair remains in a long-term down trend. The declining 20-day moving average is actively capping the pair and is offering strong resistance. The daily RSI just escaped the oversold area and stands below its neutrality area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with 0.62 as a first target (2009 overlap area) and 0.5840 in extension. A third target is set at April 2009 bottom at 0.55. Only a break above the strong horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.72 would invalidate this scenario and allow a limited recovery towards the overlap at 0.7570 and even April top at 0.7750.
Full Outlook

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