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Daily Outlook
Currency Trading Summary 05-Feb-2016

Written by Andreas Tjahja

The USD is under severe pressure these last two days with the selloff continuing for the second day in a row. USD has dropped the most in 2 days since Q1 2009 when the FED introduced the QE program. Weak US data such as jobless claims today which unexpectedly rose by 8000 give traders doubts as to the FED’s previous communication that will proceed with 4 rate hikes this year. These expectations that were largely priced in the value of the USD which enjoyed strong gains over the last 18 months, are now being reversed to accommodate the fresh expectations.

Now to the markets and a description of the action: GOLD continues to rise further on a weak USD and after breaking 1130 200 day MA yesterday, has now touched 1155. GBPUSD had large intraday swings after BoE kept rates unchanged, and USDJPY is once again dropping following the negative stock market sentiment of the day.

AUD, NZD are all upbeat – taking advantage of the USD weakness and record large gains today as well.

Focus now shifts to tonight's NFP report from the US and its significance will be unprecedented. A weak number, much below consensus carries the potential to drag the USD lower than it is even today, as the rebalancing of long USD positions that took place for the last year will undoubtedly have to be adjusted. The news will be at 13:30 GMT.

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Currency Updates:

AUD/USD Intraday: further upside.
Pivot: 0.715

Our preference: long positions above 0.715 with targets @ 0.7245 & 0.728 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.715 look for further downside with 0.7115 & 0.707 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
0.7325 **
0.728 **
0.7245 **
0.7201 Last
0.715 ***
0.7115 **
0.707 *

Ticker : AUD
GBP/USD Intraday: intraday support around 1.451.
Pivot: 1.451

Our preference: long positions above 1.451 with targets @ 1.466 & 1.4715 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.451 look for further downside with 1.448 & 1.444 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Supports and resistances:
1.4815 **
1.4715 ***
1.466 **
1.4601 Last
1.451 ***
1.448 **
1.444 **

Ticker : GBP
EUR/USD Intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 1.1115

Our preference: long positions above 1.1115 with targets @ 1.124 & 1.131 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1115 look for further downside with 1.107 & 1.1 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish. The pair validated a Pennant: a bullish continuation pattern.

Supports and resistances:
1.137 **
1.131 **
1.124 **
1.122 Last
1.1115 ***
1.107 *
1.1 **

Ticker : EUR
USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 117.35

Our preference: short positions below 117.35 with targets @ 116.2 & 116 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 117.35 look for further upside with 117.7 & 118.25 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Supports and resistances:
118.25 *
117.7 **
117.35 ***
116.637 Last
116.2 *
116 **
115.75 **

Ticker : JPY
Gold spot Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 1147.5

Our preference: long positions above 1147.5 with targets @ 1160 & 1166 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1147.5 look for further downside with 1141 & 1136.6 as targets.

Comment: the immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.

Supports and resistances:
1168.75
1166
1160
1156 Last
1147.5
1141
1136.6

Ticker : GOLDS
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