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CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY 17th April 2015

Written by

Currency Updates:

AUD/USD
• Europe buys dip down to 0.7730/35 pair lifts near 0.7780 into NY open
• Early NY sees dip near 0.7755 but dip bought on worse than f/c claims
• Firm commodities & soft USD sees stead rise, 0.7800 tested several times
• Level finally breaks in afternoon on some dovish Fed comments
• 0.7835 next resistance, break opens door to March high
• US March CPI & consumer sentiment data the next data risks

Technicals:

EUR/USD
• Fail at 1.0620/25 sup in Europe morning sess squeeze, NY opens ~1.0715
• NY adds to gains on worse than f/c claims data, 1.0770 tested
• Dip to 1.0685 on solid Philly Fed but dip bought as USD & US yields soft
• Pair recovers above 200-HMA, US yields & USD see drops in afternoon
• Dovish Fed comments seen, EUR/USD spikes >1.08, 21DMA pierced
• Little pullback seen as spreads tighten, RSIs biased up

USD/JPY
• Horrible US Housing data threatens a USD/JPY sub-Cloud close (118.94)
• 118.94 is also 50% of the Jan-Mar rise to 122.04, adding weight
• Even Philly Fed's tiny HL beat marred by weakest New Ords since May 2013
• Fed speakers on message, but Tsy yields & USD drifted lower anyway
• Mar 6 low at 118.33, 61.8% at 118.22 & Feb 16 low at 118.11 next props
• EUR/JPY in O/S rebound toward Tenkan & 50% of 131.30-126.08 at 128.69

Crosses:

Looking Ahead:

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 05:00 JP Consumer Confid. Index Mar 40.7-prev

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD - the downside prevails

The pair remains on the downside as the moving averages remain badly directed. Moreover, the daily RSI stands below the neutrality area. Therefore, as long as 1.56 holds as resistance (horizontal resistance), further weakness is likely with 1.4460 as a first target (horizontal support) and 1.4240 in extesion (May 2010 low). A third target is set at 1.3950 (2000 bottom). Only a break above 1.56 will turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.5840 (horizontal resistance; former support now acting as a resistance: polarity principle) and 1.6050 in extension (horizontal resistance).