U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the markets are starting to get jittery ahead of the Greek elections this weekend with the anti-austerity party leader once again stating he will renegotiate the bailout if elected on the weekend. US stocks fell after US Retail Sales in May dropped -0.2%. Looking ahead, May CPI forecast at -0.2% vs. 0.0% forecast. Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 375k.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD grinded higher breaking above 1.2530 to test 1.2600 in the US session with the chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone dropping after the leader of the anti-austerity party stated although he wanted better terms for help he was still committed to staying in the EU. This has lessened the chance of the contagion spreading and the major downside risk.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD weakness saw the USD/JPY pullback from Y79.70 to Y79.30 in quiet trade. The crosses were largely unchanged with most majors countering the move lower. The outlook for the safe haven will depend on the stock markets and their reaction on Monday to the weekend G20 and Greek news.
The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was under mild pressure for most of the day as GBP selling came through on the EUR/GBP cross. The market is still in a wait and see mode as we approach so many risk events on the weekend. Range trading is expected until then. Looking ahead, May EU Inflation forecast at -0.2% vs. 0.5% previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD tested 1.0000 for the third time in a week but failed to break the key resistance and eased back to 0.9950 with traders nervous to get aggressive in either direction. A lot of the fear has left the market in recent sessions and this is underpinning the AUD/USD which was sold heavily on fears the EU would break up. Looking ahead, BOJ Rate meeting on Friday.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold moved to the next level above $1620 as the USD was sold broadly. The recent high was $1630 and this will prove key in coming sessions for the resurgent precious metal. OIL/USD was quiet as the market waits for today’s OPEC meeting which has some downside risk from discontented producers worried about the recent sharp drop in prices.