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Daily Outlook – 19 DECEMBER 2011 (02:30GMT)

December 19, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks went up but finished unchanged overnight with a small rally undone in late hours. Some ratings downgrades in Europe continued to put a dampener on the whole market. US Inflation was slightly lower than expected at 0.0% m/m in November. In US stocks, DJIA -2 points closing at 11866, S&P +3 points closing at 1219 and NASDAQ +14 points closing at 2555. Looking ahead, December NAHB Housing Market Index forecast at 20 vs. 20 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD enjoy a brief rally to 1.3080 but this was wound back after Rating agencies continued to warn European countries with downgrades if the debt crisis continued. Belgium was downgraded after the close but this had little effect on the Euro trade. October EU Trade Balance fell to 0.3bn vs. 2.2 bn previously. Looking ahead, Current Account forecast at -2bn vs. -2.5bn previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) The USD/JPY stayed inside the tight range with little action or reason to break either side. EUR/JPY was more volatile pivoting the Y101.50 level and finishing near lows. The outlook for most crosses is linked to stock markets and the ongoing EU debt crisis. If confidence continues to fall then the Yen should appreciate further.

The Sterling (GBP) kept to a 50 pip trading range for a very stable trading day. EUR/GBP selling is continuing to support with the important cross now broken out of multi month range to the downside. GBP/USD will track the EUR/USD broadly however and the potential for more downside is still very evident.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) AUD/USD popped above 1.0000 briefly in the European session but this was quickly reversed and we saw the pair trade towards 0.9960 in late US weakness. The outlook is negative as the RBA cuts rates and Chinese growth is questioned and stock markets globally struggle. Stronger support is seen at 0.9850 and then 0.9600.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold finished close to $1600 testing the big figure resistance throughout the day but failing to break higher. Crude Oil tested $93 as the slide continued but then bounced and is very oversold technically.

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2867

1.2946

1.3025

1.3065

1.3237

USD/JPY

76.84

77.49

77.90

78.29

78.98

GBP/USD

1.5272

1.5409

1.5500

1.5662

1.5735

AUD/USD

0.9833

0.9920

0.9940

1.0031

1.0225

XAU/USD

1500.00

1563

1599

1622

1677

OIL/USD

91.00

92.50

93.35

95.00

96.00

Euro – 1.3025

Initial support at 1.2946 (Dec 14 low) followed by 1.2867 (Jan 10 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3065 (Dec 14 high) followed by 1.3237 (Dec 5 high)

Yen – 77.90

Initial support is located at 77.49 (Dec 9 low) followed by 76.84 (Nov 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 78.29 (Nov 29 high) followed by 78.42 (Nov 2 high).

Pound – 1.5500

Initial support at 1.5409 (Dec 14 low) followed by 1.5272 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5662 (Dec 12 high) followed by 1.5735 (Dec 9 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9940

Initial support at 0.9920 (Dec 12 high) followed by the 0.9833 (76.4% retrace of 0.9664-1.0380). Initial resistance is now at 1.0031 (Dec 13 low) followed by 1.0225 (Dec 9 high).

Gold – 1599

Initial support at 1563 (Dec 14 high) followed by 1500 (Oct 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1622 (Dec 13 low) followed by 1677 (Dec 13 high).

Oil – 93.35

Initial support at 92.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 91.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 95.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 96.00 (Intraday Resistance).

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