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Daily outlook – 21st August 2012 (00:30GMT)

August 21, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) not much movement on the markets overnight with little economic news out traders were focusing on the ECB bond buying proposal reported in a German Newspaper over the weekend. The ECB issued a rare denial Monday on the report stating ‘it is misleading to report on decisions that have not been made yet’. The German Central bank (BUPA) is still critical of the whole concept of ECB Bond buying worried it will create a moral hazard for reforming debt ridden EU countries. Looking ahead, no economic data today.


The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD dipped to 1.2300 in Europe but murmurs of ECB bond buying in some form have helped lift the pair in the US session back to 1.2350. Strong resistance has been registered between 1.2380-1.2500 over the past few weeks so concrete ECB news will be needed to get the single currency moving higher.


The Japanese Yen (JPY) profit takers emerged as the USD/JPY rally stalled near Y79.60 and we fell slowly back to Y79.30 during roughly the same time the USD was weakening against the EUR/USD. The Yen crosses are important especially the EUR/JPY which will help dictate the direction of the major. EUR/JPY has risen from Y95 to 98 in recent weeks but is stalling at this level in recent sessions.

Looking Ahead:

Australian Dollar (AUD) had a slightly positive day rising up to 1.0470 before consolidating in quiet trade. The heavy selling on Friday has spooked the bulls and we could struggle to get back above 1.0500 in the current environment waiting for fresh direction. AUD/JPY is stalling at Y83 but is still well supported for now. Looking ahead, RBA Meeting minutes from the August meeting.

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