EUR Trading Outlook
EUR/USD An early European lift for the pair couldn't break s-t resistance near 1.3685 and the pair drifted lower. The big beat on UK's June PMI sent GBP higher and EUR/GBP plummeting through 0.7970/75 support. it eventually hit a low of 0.7950 (D3). EUR/USD was pressured off that drop and slipped from the highs towards 1.3655 before lifting near 1.3670 into NY's open. Bulls ran into further trouble after the ADP jobs came in well above estimates. US yield and the USD put in solid gains. EUR/USD dumped down to a 1.3641 low before intra-day short covering ahead of Yellen took it back to 1.3660. Action settled after Yellen's remarks saw little reaction from the markets. EUR/USD dipped back near 1.3655 and sat there late in the day. Markets now await the ECB and US jobs data. The ECB is f/c to keep rates unch so focus will be on Draghi's presser. Traders will look for tips to future policy and info on the TLTRO. Draghi is most likely to strike a dovish tone. While Draghi begins his presser the jobs report will be released. Should it surprise to the topside as ADP did, EUR/USD likely sees sub-1.3600 levels quickly.
The EUR/USDeased by 11 points as the greenback recovered from its recent low ahead of ISM data due later in the trading day. The euro-area unemployment rate was unchanged in May as the currency bloc struggled to shake off the legacy of the debt crisis.
The EUR/USDsoared and then eased a bit after the release of CPI data. The euro is treading at 1.3655. The euro has strengthened against the dollar on 30 June in early trade despite mixed data signals from the Eurozone, helped by the dollar’s weakness after the negative data surprises from the US in the previous week. The EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.3660 after the data releases from near 1.3640 prior to that. The pair touched it’s highest since 9 June at the high. The euro-area inflation rate held steady in June at less than half the European Central Bank’s target, underscoring the challenge faced by Mario Draghi as he tries to stoke prices and ignite growth.
EUR/USD opened NYC 1.3611 -15 pips vs last night's close, O/N range 1.3610/35. No strong flows and the presence of nearby strikes once again corralled EUR/USD. The NYC range was 1.3610/48 and we're heading to the close at the highs. U-Mich beat f/c but had little impact. US equity marts are closing mixed, -0.25%/+0.20%, the Dow extending losses, the NASDAQ extending gains vs noon m-to-m. Today's close was the highest since Jun 5th and In listless markets, 200-DMA at 1.3673, just below June 6th 1.3677 high should hold. Thick option calendar next week 1.3500/1.3625 may prevent spot from reaching those levels. ECB & NFP next week's focus.
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