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EUR Trading Outlook


 
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28th March

AUD/USD: Another close above the 200 DMA and 50% of 0.9758-0.8660 has the bulls increase their confidence. A rally above 0.9285 resistances sit 0.9300/10 then the 61.8% Fib at 0.9339. Long term bulls will be eyeing their target to late November high at 0.9448.

EUR/USD: The pair slid to a low of 1.3728 before bouncing back up a little bit. US equity market added pressure on EUR again and the pair sat just above 1.3735 late in the day. Bids are touted in the 1.3705/25 area where the March 5 low, 55 DMA and 50% Fib of sentiment sour. Below 1.3700 would lead up to a test of 1.3640/70 where the Feb 27 low, 21 WMA & TL off the July low sit.

27th March

AUD/USD: For now, bulls hold the reigns as the pair closed above 200 DMA for the second consecutive day, holding above the 50% Fib of 0.9758-0.8660 and day/week RSI provide positive momentum. Bulls may have their sight set on 0.9445/50 (late Nov high).

EUR/USD: The 21 DMA capped any overnight rally and widening yield spreads weighed on the pair for Europe's morning. A quick spike in NY session as traders bought the dip in 1.3770/80 area to 1.3810 but did not make further gains. Choppy action in broad 1.3750-1.3900 range should hold as little data due until Friday German March CPI report. A weak result will once again increase bets on ECB to act.

26th March

AUD/USD: The pair was set to finally close above the 200DMA. Overall the AUD is still in an uptrend, a full break of 0.9175 will keep the bulls run to a test of 0.9205/25 resistance. A break there sees little resistance until 0.9440/50

EUR/USD: The pair sank down to 1.3770 after ECB members' statements and further pressure was added from Draghi's speech, pushing the EUR to 1.3750. However, Draghi indicated that the bank is not ready to act yet without further evidences on deflation or disinflation. EUR/USD immediately erased most of the initial losses and pushed the pair up to 1.3847. Bulls are extent as recent attempts to clear 1.3750 failed and a bullish hammer forms on the daily chart.

25th March

AUD/USD: AUD pierced the 200 DMA (0.9139) at the start but slid beneath it again and sat above 0.9125 late in the day. Bulls continue to gain confidence and tech bolster their case. Day/week RSIs are biased up. Long lower wicks on recent daily candles also suggest higher levels are due. A clean break above the 200 DMA puts 0.9205/25 resistance in play. Beyond that zone there will be little resistance until 0.9450.

EUR/USD: Bears pushed the pair to 1.3760 but no further drop were seen. A massive run from just below 1.3800 took hold, 1.3820/25 stops were run and the pair quickly spiked up to 1.3877. Bulls are back in the game as the pair breaks above the 21 DMA into the old bull channel off the Feb low. If 1.3880 resistances get cleared, a retest of the March high looks likely.

24th March

AUD/USD: Chances of a rally back to the 200 DMA & TL off April's high increase as the March 20 doji sees upside follow through today. Day/Week RSIs resume bullish pressure and spreads remain at recent wides.

EUR/USD: Sell off started since last week, hourly supports were bought but topside rallies were limited by the 21-DMA and old bull channel base. Asian names with resting offers 1.3810/20 aided to cap the pair. Bearish sentiment seems to be still growing as the break below the 21-DMA bull channel off February's bearish outlook. EZ PMIs will be out today, soft reading on the data would confirm the bearish technical outlook and could test the pair to 1.3685/1.3710 support levels.


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