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EUR Trading Outlook

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2nd May

AUD/USD: Current pivot at 0.9315, support at 0.9245, 0.9225 and 0.9210. Range trading is still the game plan, market awaits for NFP data for further movements.

EUR/USD: Early Europe session pushed the pair above 1.3880 resistance to a high of 1.3889. However, offers at 1.3900-05 capped bulls and the pair dropped back down below 1.3880. Current action will still be limited as market awaits for NFP. The ECB is hoping for a well above f/c result as the USD should firm and it relieves some pressure for the bank to act sooner than later. For now the broad 1.3670-1.3970 range remains.

1st May

AUD/USD: Europe lifted the pair to the 200-HMA but the gains were quickly erased as EZ CPI didn't see bearish follow through for EUR. EUR/AUD leaped off the 21-DMA and aided AUD/USD's tumble towards 0.9260 as NY started. Market now waits for China PMI, a poor data may see AUD test 0.9205/25 again and a better data could see stops above 0.9310/20 area run and put the April high back in play.

EUR/USD Bears were uninspired after EZ CPI was slightly below f/c and a massive short squeeze ensued. Asian buying of EUR/USD and models covering EUR/CAD & EUR/AUD shorts aided a rally to have the pair near 1.3825 as NY got going. ADP's beat saw little mkt impact. US GDP's miss nudged the rally further with only a brief pullback occurring after Chicago PMI was well above expectations. The pair hit a 1.3877 high & dipped toward 1.3860 ahead of the Fed. The Fed was steady with taper and had a slightly upbeat assessment of the US econ. A brief USD bounce saw hourly sup near 1.3855 tested but it held. US yields had been sliding ahead of the Fed and slid a bit more afterwards. EUR/USD retested the day's high before settling just below 1.3870 late in the day. Bulls weren't willing to challenge corp offers in the 1.3880-00 region as the US ISM due Thursday & NFP on Friday loom. The data points are more current than GDP and give a more accurate assessment of the econ. Should they reflect the weak GDP EUR/USD may break >1.3900 and try to run stops touted in the 1.3920/30 region.

30th April

AUD/USD: Overall still in a relatively bearish sentiment on the pair. A soft reading on China PMI would increase pressure on the AUD. For now, support still at 0.9205/25, a break would test 0.9170 and 0.9150. On the top side, 0.9320 resistances is still holding up.

EUR/USD: Monthly-end interest from corporates capped EUR/USD's rally at 1.3880 overnight and the looming German HICP saw recent longs lightened up. The below f/c EZ CPI slammed the recent EUR rally back to 1.3800 area. Bids into 1.3800 and near the 21-DMA kept stops sub -1.38 for now. Market awaits for EZ CPI print tomorrow, a weak data could see 1.3780 support break and a test of cloud base 1.3722 could be tested.

29th April

AUD/USD: Day/week RSIs weigh as yield spreads narrows. For now, the market will focus on the April low of 0.9205. A break there opens up a 200 & 55 DMA (0.9150/53) test.

EUR/USD: Europe spiked the pair up from below 1.3820 to a high of 1.3880. Talk was Russian banks were the culprits. U.S home sales data pressured the pair to 1.3840 but bounced back towards 1.3860 as market may now lean towards an above f/c EZ CPI on Wednesday after Draghi's comments. For now, rising 10 & 21 DMA combine with bullish day/week RSIs to give bulls the upper hand.

28th April

USD/JPY stayed under pressure throughout the NorAm session as equities were broadly lower on Russia and China fears. A Ukrainian ultimatum issued yesterday hung over the marketplace as investors had no way to handicap the outcome. The Japanese CPI data didn't seem to provide the direction as many had hoped so all eyes now turn to next Wednesday's BOJ meeting to see how they respond to the latest reading. Nikkei futures sold off 0.8% in Chicago and puts the index in a precarious spot with this week's bearish cross of the 40 and 200 day moving averages. CNHJPY finished at a new low for the year and is a potential negative in that the last thing the Japanese need is a disinflationary wave coming from China.

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