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EUR Trading Outlook


 
4.5.2015-4.5.2015 1.5.2015-27.4.2015 24.4.2015-20.4.2015 17.4.2015-14.4.2015 9.4.2015-6.4.2015 3.4.2015-30.3.2015 27.3.2015-23.3.2015 20.3.2015-16.3.2015 13.3.2015-9.3.2015 6.3.2015-2.3.2015 27.2.2015-23.2.2015 20.2.2015-16.2.2015 13.2.2015-9.2.2015 6.2.2015-2.2.2015 30.1.2015-28.1.2015 22.1.2015-21.1.2015 15.1.2015-12.1.2015 8.1.2015-8.1.2015 12.12.2014-8.12.2014 5.12.2014-1.12.2014 27.11.2014-24.11.2014 21.11.2014-17.11.2014 13.11.2014-10.11.2014 6.11.2014-4.11.2014 31.10.2014-27.10.2014 24.10.2014-20.10.2014 17.10.2014-13.10.2014 10.10.2014-8.10.2014 3.10.2014-29.9.2014 26.9.2014-22.9.2014 19.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013

17th April

EUR/USD
• Fail at 1.0620/25 sup in Europe morning sess squeeze, NY opens ~1.0715
• NY adds to gains on worse than f/c claims data, 1.0770 tested
• Dip to 1.0685 on solid Philly Fed but dip bought as USD & US yields soft
• Pair recovers above 200-HMA, US yields & USD see drops in afternoon
• Dovish Fed comments seen, EUR/USD spikes >1.08, 21DMA pierced
• Little pullback seen as spreads tighten, RSIs biased up

USD/JPY
• Horrible US Housing data threatens a USD/JPY sub-Cloud close (118.94)
• 118.94 is also 50% of the Jan-Mar rise to 122.04, adding weight
• Even Philly Fed's tiny HL beat marred by weakest New Ords since May 2013
• Fed speakers on message, but Tsy yields & USD drifted lower anyway
• Mar 6 low at 118.33, 61.8% at 118.22 & Feb 16 low at 118.11 next props
• EUR/JPY in O/S rebound toward Tenkan & 50% of 131.30-126.08 at 128.69

16th April

EUR/USD
• Europe sees several pushes into 1.570/80 repelled, good demand noted
• NY makes early push lower but it's bought pre-Draghi presser
• Draghi less dovish, notes depo rate won't be lowered, FX rate not targeted
• Pair gains but fades as German 10yr yield hits new low, dip bought though
• Broad based USD weakness sees pair near key 1.0710/20 resistance
• Little pullback seen as US yields stay soft, 1.0775/90 test possible

USD/JPY
• USD/JPY succumbed to more bad US data, tech break & oil surge
• Cloud base & 50% of the Jan-Mar rise at 118.94 were broken below in NY
• Mar 26 low at 118.33, 61.8% Fibo at 118.22 & Feb 16 low at 118.11
• German FinMin raised doubts about Greek debt deal in April
• EUR/JPY choppy above key 76.4% Fibo at 126.07
• WTI sprints past Feb range highs, bad for Japan Trade balance, JPY+
• Weekly MOF flow data tonight

15th April

EUR/USD
• Light short covering in Europe sees pair near 1.0575 at NY open
• US sales data & IMF US 2015 & 2016 GDP cuts see US yields & USD fall
• EUR/USD hits 1.0708 high, HFs & leveraged were noted USD sellers
• 1.0710/20 (daily low, 38.2 Fib of 1.136-1.0521) zone caps
• USD bounce late in day sees pair settle near 1.0655
• ECB meeting risk tomorrow but no major change expected

USD/JPY
• USD/JPY dived toward 119 & 118.94 Cloud base on soft US Retail Sales
• Sales data still up nicely v Feb & reaction to Hamada comments overdone
• Bigger risk is if US Q2 data don't improve enough to revive Fed hike hopes
• Abe, Hamada, Kuroda in favor of steadier yen, not big rise; QQE3 if needed
• Weekly up TL at 119.27 key on Friday's close, daily Cloud base before that
• Japan CU, IP & Kuroda speech tonight

14th April

EUR/USD
• Early NY adds to losses from Europe's morning on RM & leveraged sales
• 1.0521 low hit, bounce ensues on talk of 1.05 barrier & softening USD
• 1.0570/75 res breaks as USD collapses on JPY strength
• HF short covering accelerates lift & 1.0610/20 res zone tested
• EUR/JPY stays heavy on sour risk, weighs EUR/USD
• EUR/USD sub-1.0560 before bouncing towards 1.0575 late in day.

USD/JPY
• USD/JPY o/n high at 120.84 faded by Ldn after Tsy ylds slipped
• Sub 120 stops run on Hamada's 105 fair value call - bbg
• Bids above 119.52 Cloud top held for snapback 120.42
• USD-JPY 2-yr yld spreads slipped in US, as did risk, helping yen
• US Retail Sales a key Fed policy input on Tuesday
• EUR/JPY broke Mar low on Hamada & Grexit risk, but snapped back


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