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EUR Trading Outlook


 
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13th February

EUR/USD A somewhat subdued European morning for EUR/USD suddenly came to life in early NY. The USD had been generally soft leading into the US data but the below f/c results sent the USD tumbling even faster. EUR/USD's reaction was delayed a bit though as it couldn't break 1.1355/60 res. A slight pullback was bought though and stops above that resistance were run. The 200-HMA was pierced and 1.1380 neared before another pullback below 1.1340 took hold. Again the dip was bought but this time more vigorously as US bond yield crumbled. Fierce buying took hold and the pair cleared the 10-DMA and pierced the 21-DMA. Real money sellers building short positions were noted sellers but they were no match for the momentum buying. The pair hit a 1.1423 high before any meaningful pullback was seen. The USD took back some losses late in NY's afternoon and EUR/USD dipped towards 1.1395 late in the day. Traders now looks to EZ Q4 GDP reports and further news on Greece for their cues. A weak GDP likely puts bear pressure on the pair.

12th February

EUR/USD opened NY 1.1304 -18 pips vs last night's close, having traded 1.1289/1.1331. NY continued with a similar attitude, traded 1.1280/1.1321 and hands off to Sydney c 1.1302. Event risk from the Greek debt discussions is uppermost on everyone's minds and no one is adding to risk exposure until we get some firm indications on how they're going to go down. Positive remarks from the OECD after chatting with Mr Tsipras buoyed sentiment but negative comments from the German camp negated them. The talks are not likely to get far tomorrow as the G20 meeting is focused mainly on E.Ukraine, terrorism/ ISIL, ISIS, Boko Haram et al. We're probably not going to hear much until next week according to media reports.

11th February

EUR/USD NY walked in with bear pressure being applied to the pair. Europe dropped EUR/USD from the 1.1335 area towards 1.1275 into NY's open mostly on the back of EUR/GBP's decline to 0.7409. Real money bids in EUR/USD stemmed the slide and an MNI story on Greece then saw the pair spike towards 1.1340. The story quoted 'sources' stating the EU commission is to propose a 6 month extension for Greece, propose a reorganization of the Troika and table a compromise plan for Greece. The rally faltered quickly though as the market began to realize this proposal likely wasn't the full story. Reuters then reported the EU commission said there is no formal proposal for Greece but that talks are intensive. EUR/USD slipped back near 1.1285. Buyers emerged though as the earlier rise in the USD abated. A slow ascent took hold and the pair sat near 1.1315 late in the day. Action is likely to remain quiet in Asia as the Europe group meeting is tomorrow. large headline risk likely exists. Should the Greek situation turn more sour it's likely EUR/USD will sink and we may see the 2015 low retested.

10th February

EUR/USD The pair got hit late in Europe's morning and headlines that the UK's PM chaired a meeting with treasury & BoE to plan for a possible Greek Euro exit. The slide saw EUR/USD fall from near 1.1350 towards 1.1310 into NY's open. Bear pressure persisted in early NY as the market was also expecting some USD bullish follow through after Friday's US jobs data. The pair hit 1.1270 but couldn't make more progress. RM bids in the 1.1260/70 zone halted the slide. With now new impetus for USD strength, short covering took hold. A steady ascent towards 1.1350 ensued with relatively few dips. LAte in the day the pair sat nearer to NY's high and had offers into the 200-HMA (1.1361) under threat. There is little major data due out of the EZ or US tomorrow so the pair may stick to a tight range. headline risk out of Greece and Russia (re; Ukraine) could be the main drivers for tomorrow's session.

9th February

EUR/USD Europe held a tight range but the pair did have a bearish lean to it. The pair dipped to 1.1430 but bounced near 1.1450 as Ny got going. Early NY saw the lift push a bit further as the USD was soft. A NY high of 1.1466 was hit but the lift was erased in a heartbeat. The US jobs report beat forecasts and prior NFP released were revised up nicely. This had the market thinking the Fed may have its 'patience' tested. The USD soared and EUR/USD dived below the 200-HMA and tested near 1.1315 before any type of bounce took hold. JPY weakness pushed EUR/JPY above 135.15 and this allowed EUR/USD a bounce towards 1.1350. The lift faltered in the afternoon though and the pair near 1.1310 with little bounce. Late in the day the pair sat just under 1.1320. There is little major EZ econ data until Q4 GDP reports late in the week. The market will most likely focus on the Greek situation. The Eurogroup's Chairman Dijsselbloem stated Greece must apply for a bailout extension on Feb 16 at the latest to keep financial backing. EUR trading into that event could prove to be volatile as the market will be jittery.


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