EUR Trading Outlook


 
17.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012 17.8.2012-13.8.2012 10.8.2012-6.8.2012 3.8.2012-30.7.2012 27.7.2012-23.7.2012 20.7.2012-16.7.2012 13.7.2012-9.7.2012 6.7.2012-2.7.2012 29.6.2012-26.6.2012 22.6.2012-18.6.2012 14.6.2012-11.6.2012 8.6.2012-4.6.2012 1.6.2012-28.5.2012

7th December

The Euro (EUR) was crushed lower after being hit by dovish comments at the ECB meeting press conference. The ECB lowered its 2013 GDP forecasts but the major comment that traders picked up on was that the OMT was only to be used in emergencies and not to lower yields. The uptrend is under threat from the correction lower on the major and Euro Crosses. The Sterling (GBP) was dragged lower be the Euro slump but we have found support at 1.6050 on Cable. EUR/GBP fell below 0.8100 and has traded as low as 0.8070 so far in Asia. The outlook is mixed with bulls cautious given the new Euro developments and US NFP today. The BOE met and kept rates at 0.5% as widely forecast. Looking ahead, ECB President Draghi Speaks. Also German Industrial Output forecast at -0.5%m/m vs. -1.8% m/m/

6th December

The Euro (EUR) hit day highs in Asia near 1.3125 before reversing back below 1.3100 in Europe on USD strength given a weak Spanish Debt auction ahead of today’s ECB meeting. The ECB is forecast to hold at 0.75% but focus will be on President Draghi’s Speech. Support was found at 1.3080 and the uptrend still remains in place. The Sterling (GBP) remained at the 1.6100 level in very tight range which is unusual for the Pound which usually trades in a 100 pip+ daily range. The BOE meet tonight to discuss UK interest rates and are widely expected to keep rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375bn. Looking ahead, ECB Interest Rate Decision forecast to hold at 0.75%. BoE Interest Rate Decision forecast at 1.0% previously.

5th December

The Euro (EUR) broke above 1.3100 and is nearing a key resistance at 1.3140-80 (Oct 17 High) where the bears are expected to make a stronger stand. Tail risk is the scenario where the Eurozone breaks up or a country defaults on debt. There has been a significant drop in the tail risk out of Europe over the last month with progress being made on crises out of Greece and Spain.

4th December

The Euro (EUR) shot above 1.3000 to fresh multimonth highs just under 1.3080 after Spain formally requested aid for its banks and Greece successfully completed its bond buyback program. Bond Yields from Greece to Spain and Italy all dropped dramatically and suggest further topside for the single currency.

3rd December

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD hugged the 1.3000 on Friday with little incentive to push higher given profit taking on stocks. Germany approved bailout money for Greece but October EU Unemployment hit 11.7% vs. 11.6% previously for a fresh all-time Euro era high.

26th November

 


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