EUR Trading Outlook
The Euro (EUR) after surviving the 1.3000 test during the Asian session the single currency reversed and we saw a rally higher into Europe back above 1.3100 in a positive day for range traders. The next resistance is close at 1.3125 and if broken then would confirm the downside pressure is over for now. The SNB held and failed to inspire more EUR/CHF buying which eased back under 1.2100.
The Euro (EUR) the selling continued overnight with a grind lower towards the 1.3000 level but the move was slow and the level was not tested. The outlook is negative with the post Greece bailout price action suggesting little support the single currency and the ECB likely to cut rates rather than hike as their next move.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD broke below 1.3100 hitting small stops but there was little interest for a move lower and we saw a modest reversal heading into the US session. The EUR/GBP also rallied breaking above 0.8400 for fresh March highs. Supporting was talk from EU finance ministers confident they will agree to increase the rescue fund to firewall the European debt crisis. This was seen as important prerequisite for larger contributions from Japan and China to the IMF.
The Euro (EUR) the rally post Greece bailout fizzled with the ISDA calling the debt swap deal a credit event and the USD well supported post nonfarm Jobs data. The market closed just above 1.3100 and a move lower Monday is very possible while the downside remains pressured. EUR/GBP tested and failed at 0.8400 and could be in for further losses this week if sentiment turns negative again.
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