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USD Trading Outlook

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10th October

AUD/USD Europe added to Asia's gains. The pair was pushed up near the 0.8900 level as the USD and US bond yields were generally soft. The rally stalled though as the USD slide halted. AUD/USD slid from the 0.8899 high & sat near 0.8875 into NY's open. The USD began a recovery as USD/JPY made a nice bounce off 107.50. AUD/USD steadily slid lower and paused near 0.8835. The slide accelerated and cleared the post-Oz jobs data dip after US bond yields recovered, JPY strength emerged while oil & equity markets were hit hard. The slide stalled just short of the 200-HMA as it made a NY low of 0.8765. Very little bounce was seen though and the pair sat just above the 10-DMA (0.8764) late in the day. The short squeeze may have run out of gas. After making a new s-t trend high the pair closes the day down and daily RSI rolls over. A clean break of the 10-DMA and daily lows of Oct 7 & 8 should see recent longs exit. The 2014 lows are then back in play.

9th October

AUD/USD Europe sold a rally towards 0.882 and had the pair near 0.8790 as NY got going. NY kept the pressure on as the USD was firm for most of NY. The pair pushed towards 0.8760 before bouncing a bit. Another leg lower took hold though as EUR/AUD lifted above daily highs near 1.4460 and 1.4490. AUD/USD hit a low inNY of 0.8735 before bouncing ahead of the Fed minutes. The dovish lean and mention of USD strength in the minutes sent USD spiraling lower across the board. AUD/USD spiked up to a high of 0.8847. Offers ahead of 0.8850 capped the gains but very little pullback was seen. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.8840. traders now look to the OZ jobs report later. The ABS' adjustment to previous releases has the market wondering what tonight's result will be. Should the results surprise to the topside AUD/USD likely gets another boost and may make a run at 0.8930/50 resistance.

8th October

AUD/USD steady short covering squeeze continued for Europe's morning. A bit of resistance in the 0.8810 region saw a dip towards 0.8770 into NY's open. NY bought the dip though as US bond yields were soft. This kept steady pressure on the USD especially vs. JPY. AUD/USD lifted from the 0.8770 area, ran light stops above Europe's high and more stops through 0.8830 to hit a 0.8835 high. The rally stalled though as the IMF lowered global econ growth forecasts and risk sentiment shifted south. The pair dipped to 0.8800 but sat near 0.8815 late in the day to leave the AUD the top performer vs. the USD on the day. China's Sep HSBC Services PMI will get some play by traders but it's unlikely to impact too much as the market is more attuned to the Oz Sep jobs report due tomorrow. Should both data pieces come in on the weak side, AUD/USD's recent squeeze may be over and a return to the key 0.8660/70 area may be in order.

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