USD Trading Outlook


 
17.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012 24.8.2012-20.8.2012 17.8.2012-13.8.2012 10.8.2012-6.8.2012 3.8.2012-30.7.2012 27.7.2012-23.7.2012 20.7.2012-16.7.2012 13.7.2012-9.7.2012 6.7.2012-2.7.2012 29.6.2012-26.6.2012 22.6.2012-18.6.2012 14.6.2012-11.6.2012 8.6.2012-4.6.2012 1.6.2012-28.5.2012

17th January

Currencies

  • The euro (EUR) remained range bound in yesterday’s trading session against the dollar. Support lied at 1.3582 while the pair could not move above 1.3647. Today’s US data releases may help the pair pick up on volatility.
  • The US dollar (USD) has found strong support at 104.20 against the Japanese yen (JPY) after falling from yesterday’s weekly highs. The dollar has proven resilient against downward pressure in the past few months. Building Permits and Consumer sentiment may fuel the pair’s movement over the afternoon.

Equities

  • US stocks opened lower with the US 500 (SPI) currently at 1837.76 after disappointing results from major constituents. Wall Street will keep an eye on today’s consumer confidence for future direction.

Commodities

  • Brent crude oil (BRT) fell to 105.45 where it found strong support in yesterday’s trading. Energy prices have been under pressure as supply considerations are eased.

Mover & Shaker with FX Options

  • Gold (XAU) has had a vibrant week rising to 1255.30 before falling to 1234.05 dollars per ounce. However gold investors were in no short supply to buy at the cheap and managed to bring up the price to 1243.60. As volatility picks up, investors are looking at safe guarding their capital.

  • Options traders may consider constructing a Long Straddle on Gold if they expect volatility to pick up in either direction in the next few weeks.
  • A Gold Straddle can be constructed by purchasing an at-the-money Put and an at-the-money Call on gold.

15th January

Currencies

  • The euro (EUR) dropped on yesterday’s trading session against the dollar. The single currency has fallen from 1.3698 to 1.3635 hinting at a reversal of its bullish run. Look ahead for the European trade balance today for news on the continent’s economy.
  • The US dollar (USD) continues to rise against the Japanese yen (JPY) touching 104.41 from 102.87 on Monday. This afternoon, the Purchasers Price Index and the Beige Book release may reinforce the dollar’s direction. Resistance for the pair lies at 105.40.

  • The US dollar (USD) is also picking up speed against the Canadian dollar (CAD). The Looney seems to weaken as money flows are reversing favouring the US economy. The pair has broken above 1.0921 to 1.0975 continuing its bullish run.

Equities

  • Wall Street worked hard to recover Monday’s losses in yesterday’s session. The US 500 (SPI) rose from 1809 to 1832 as investors drove in to buy on the cheap.

Commodities

  • Brent crude oil (BRT) remains on a bearish trajectory breaking below 106.80 down to 105.42. Today’s release of US crude oil inventories could shed some light on the potential for energy commodities.

Mover & Shaker with FX Options

  • Gold (XAU) had remained range bound beginning the week between 1244 and 1254 dollars. After failing trice to break above resistance, the precious metal has slid to 1238 indicating a return to its long term trend.

  • Options traders may consider constructing Bear Put Spreads on Gold and capture any possible downside for the metal in coming weeks.
  • A Bear Put spread can be constructed by purchasing an in-the-money Put and selling out an out-of-the-money Put on gold.

14th January

The EU Morning Report - Markets edgy ahead of core retail sales - 14 January 2014

Written by the team


Currencies

  • The euro (EUR) remained range bound around 1.3665 after moving higher last week on weak US jobs growth. The single currency has found temporary support around 1.3637.
  • The US dollar (USD) climbed from its two week low at 103.90 all the way up to 105.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The pair is heading towards higher highs and looking ahead the FOMC meeting minutes will take place today at 19:00 GMT.

Equities

  • Wall Street was bearish at the start of the week with US equities lower. The US 500 (SPI) fell from 1839 to 1810 amid thin trading yesterday.

Commodities

  • WTI crude (OIL) remains bearish overall trading at 92.07 dollars per barrel. Oil prices have twice tested support at 91.20 indicating a potential retreat in energy prices.

Mover & Shaker with FX Options

  • Gold (XAU) continues its bullish run finding higher highs along the way. The precious metal, currently trading at 1252 dollars per troy ounce may look for further upside should US data releases continue to disappoint.

  • Options traders may consider constructing a Bull Call Spread on Gold and capture any possible upside potential in the coming days.
  • A bull call spread can be constructed by purchasing an in-the-money Call and selling out an out-of-the-money Call on gold.


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