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USD Trading Outlook

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27th March

AUD/USD The weak USD in Europe's morning inspired bulls to test s-t resistance near 0.7880. Several attempts failed and the pair pulled back to the 0.7865 area into NY's open. NY made their own try at cracking the resistance but failed just as well. A rebound for the USD that was ignited by significant rallies in US treasury yields saw AUD/USD's gains start to erode. The slide saw 0.7820 tested before any bounce was seen. The lift was limited though and the pair went on to test 0.7800/10 support as US yields rallied further. A give back for some of the USD's gains saw the support hold and the pair sat just below 0.7825 late in the day. No major data is due from the APAC region so traders will likely wait until US GDP tomorrow for the next cue for the pair.

26th March

AUD/USD The pair held below 0.7900 in Europe's morning and was unable to benefit from general USD weakness as upped concerns of an RBA cut and AUD/NZD's slide towards 1.0275 weighed. NY walked in with the pair near 0.7890. The weak durable goods data weighed further on the USD. AUD/USD finally caught a bid and traded to 0.7905. The gains were fleeting though as the USD recovered on a rally for US bond yields. AUD/USD slipped lower, cleared Asia's low & hit 0.7829. There was little bounce for the pair as the USD stayed firm in the afternoon. Late in NY the pair sat just above 0.7840. No major data is due from the APAC region. Action might be limited as the market awaits weekly US jobs data for their cues. Recent longs might have some concerns as the March 24 doji sees downside follow through today and daily RSI rolls over from near o/b territory. A dip might be due but the 10-DMA will cross above the 21-DMA soon and is likely to generate buy signals from the model community. The recent rally may still have legs.

25th March

AUD/USD Bull pressure applied in Europe persisted in early NY. A soft USD and short covering by model accounts were attributed to the rise. NY walked in with the pair near 0.7900 and sitting there into CPI. Upon the data release the pair initially slipped towards 0.7880. The dip was bough aggressively though and stops above the February high were run. Bullish follow through saw a high of 0.7939 made but the gains were fleeting. A rebound for the USD ensued and AUD/USD sales by US leveraged and fund names had the pair diving. Sour risk sentiment then kept the pair weighed for NY's afternoon. Support near 0.7860/65 (daily cloud base, 55-DMA) was pressed and the pair sat just above it late in the day. There is no major Oz data due but the RBA releases its FSR. Little impact on AUD is expected though. The rally off the March low is intact but bulls might have some concerns. Today's high wasn't confirmed by the daily RSI and a long upper wick forms on today's candle. A dip back to the 0.7750/0.7800 zone cannot be ruled out.

24th March

AUD/USD Early Europe saw AUD/USD smash much of the gains made in Asia. The pair dived from the 0.7840 area and down to 0.7764 before lifting to the 0.7800 area into NY's open. The USD was soft for most of NY trade and this had AUD/USD firm for most of the session. Short covering and a widening of yield spreads was the original impetus for the pair's rise. AUD/NZD's bounce towards 1.0305 added momentum to the pair's lift. The lift from NY's open saw very little dips and eventually ran stops above the 0.7860/65 zone. The lift accelerated and a high of 0.7884 was hit. Only a small pullback was seen late in the day and the pair sat near 0.7875 into the close. No big Oz data is due so traders are likely to take cues from China's March HSBC Mfg PMI. A robust reading should spur more AUD buys. The could see AUD/USD squeeze up to the 0.7914 high of Feb 26. IF that high breaks the door to the 0.8025/55 zone opens wider.

23th March

AUD/USD A quiet European morning was abruptly stirred to life in early NY. Soft US bond yields had the market leaning more in favor of unwinding USD longs since the Fed's action from Wednesday. AUD/USD sat near 0.7690 as NY got going. The USD sell-off saw AUD/USD spike higher once s-t stops above 0.7710 were run. The rally persisted for most of NY with very little pullback seen. the lift stalled just short of hourly resistance from March 19 as it hit a high of 0.7802. Intra-day profit taking for USD bears then saw the pair slip back near 0.7775 late in the day. There is no major OZ data next week so traders will look to the USD side of the equation for cues. US Feb CPI is Tuesday. A below f/c reading could see the recent AUD/USD rally press on. As it stands now bulls are gaining some traction. The pair is solidly above the 10 & 21-DMAs, daily RSI is biased up while the monthly is near diverging and a long lower wick is in place on the monthly candle. A retest of the post-FOMC high looks likely for now. A break of the 0.7900/30 zone might lead to a bigger squeeze and a test of 0.8025/55 resistance might ensue.

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