USD Trading Outlook
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar had a mixed day with the European and UK currencies enjoying good gains while the Yen and Gold were under heavy selling pressure. Chicago PMI was strong at 55.6 vs. 50.5 forecast and help spark a Yen cross rally which allowed the USD/JPY to hit fresh highs above Y92. Looking ahead, January NonFarm Payrolls forecast at 161k vs. 155k previously. The Unemployment Rate is forecast unchanged at 7.8%.
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in an action packed day of trading we saw risk appetite take a hit after the US GDP surprised forecasters coming in -0.1% q/y for Q4. US stocks fell sharply but the USD struggled especially against the Yen and Gold. Later we had the FOMC statement where the FED didn’t surprise offering similar guidance to the market as in December with a commitment to keep rates low until the unemployment rate dropped below 6.5%. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 350k vs. 330k previously. Also Chicago PMI forecast at 50.5 vs. 50 previously.
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk assets gained overnight at the expense of the Dollar after US Q4 company earnings continued to beat estimates. S&P500 rallied to fresh five year highs ahead of the FOMC rate decision later today. The recent run of good economic data and climbing Treasury yields is leading some analysts to bring forward their FED timetable to normalize US monetary policy. Looking ahead, FOMC Rate announcement forecast at hold at 0.25%. Also Q4 GDP Advance forecast at 1.1% vs. 3.1% previously.
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar remained on the front foot with economic data improving out of the world’s largest economy. December Durable Goods gained 4.6% vs. 1.7% previously. Interest rates responded immediately with 10yr Yields gaining above 2%. The FOMC meeting this week will be critical for traders and the US monetary policy outlook. Looking ahead, November Case Shiller house prices forecast at 5.5% vs. 4.3% y/y. Also CB Consumer Confidence forecast at 64.8 vs. 65.1 previously.
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD had a mixed end to the week losing ground against the Euro but enjoying solid gains against the Yen with USD/JPY breaking above Y90 and testing Y91 by the end of the New York session. The USD is benefitting from a wave of verbal interventions in the FX market from Japan to UK. New Homes Sales fell in December to 369k vs. 398k previously. Looking ahead, December Durable Goods Orders forecast at 0.8% vs. 1.6% previously. Also Pending Home Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. 1.7% previously.
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