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USD Trading Outlook

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17th October

AUD/USD AUD fell victim to the risk-off sentiment as Europe's equity markets tanked along with commodities. AUD/USD slide from near 0.8800 towards 0.8685 before it bounced towards 0.8720 ahead of NY's open. Risk sentiment was still soft and WTI dipped below $80/bbl. This saw early NY push AUD/USD to a new daily low of 0.8666. Buyers emerged though as US econ data was better than forecast. Hourly resistance near 0.7930 was tested. The resistance eventually broke as the Fed's Bullard stated the Fed could contemplate increasing bond buys while also noting in a BBG interview that the Fed may want to pause taper of QE due to the drop in inflation expectations. AUD/USD rallied to 0.8789 as stocks and commodities put in powerful rallies off their lows. Late in the day the pair sat just above 0.8760 as some of those rallies were given back. No major data or events are scheduled in Asia's session so AUD traders are likely to take their cues from the stock & commodity markets.

16th October

AUD/USD Europe pushed back against the rally begun in Asia. Offers into the 200-HMA limited gains and the pair slipped towards 0.8725 into NY's open. It sat near that level ahead of the US econ data as well. The US data had no redeeming qualities about it and that sent US yields and the USD sharply lower. AUD/USD spiked higher and cleared the 21-DMA and Oct 14 high. Weak stops above the latter were run and the pair went on to hit a 0.8860 high. A quick rebound in the USD saw a dip near 0.8775 take hold. A bounce from that level neared 0.8810 but sellers emerged. AUD/JPY's break below 92.80/90 and AUD/NZD's break below 1.1030/35 put massive pressure on AUD/USD. The pair dropped to pre-retail sales levels near 0.8715/20. A late day bounce for stocks and some JPY weakness allowed AUD/USD to lift back above the 200-HMA and sit near 0.8770 late in the day. Trades look to the Sep Consumer Inflation expectations as well as RBA Asst. Gov. Debelle's panel participation at the Thomson Reuters FX Benchmark event for their next cues.

15th October

AUD/USD Europe erased Asia's gains and had AUD/USD dip to 0.8718 before it bounced near 0.8740 into NY's open. Early NY saw some USD weakness and risk sentiment shift up a bit. This allowed AUD/USD to rally but the lift stalled short of the 200-HMA as it could only reach 0.8754. The USD reversed course and aided a push back near 0.8720. The pair lingered near that level for most of NY's afternoon but bears pushed harder. A hard hit to WTI, a give back for a good part of equity gains and JPY strength softened risk sentiment. AUD/USD & AUD/JPY traded lower. AUD/USD dipped towards 0.8700 while AUD/JPY dived from near 93.45 towards 93.05. Little bounce was seen and AUD/USD sat near 0.8705 late in the day while AUD/JPY sat just off its low. Trades now look to Westpac's Oct consumer confidence data and China's Sep CPI & PPI readings. Soft results for hose data points should have AUD trading heavy in Asia.

14th October

AUD/USD Did little in the NYC time slot after a higher open, and continues to flop to either side of the 200 hma at .8763. US short rates collapsed on the back of dovish statements from various Fed officials at the weekend's IMF meeting, most notably Vice Chair Stanley Fischer who sees no inflation on the horizon, and set the USD back across the board (except for GBP). Still plenty of willing sellers around in AUD as many fear the bigger move in risk assets is down, not up. The next 50 pips in AUDUSD is a coin toss but with Nikkei set to open down hard (futures -2.1% at 14,975)

13th October

AUD/USD The combination of China's coal tariffs, soft Oz investment housing finance and a general risk-off theme saw Europe smash AUD/USD lower. Bears drove the pair towards 0.8725 into NY's open. Commodity prices and equity futures were all in negative territory as NY got going so bears pressed the pair further. The pair sliced through s-t profit taking bids ahead of 0.8700 and hit a NY low of 0.8687. A bounce towards 0.8730 then took hold as the USD softened while stocks & commodities rallied a bit. The bounce was sold though as the pair sat near 0.8710 late in the day. The pair's inability to clear 0.8900 resistance and slide back below the 10-DMA combine with a long upper wick on the weekly candle to put a bearish outlook back in play. Day/week RSIs are biased down again and yield spreads remain near recent tights. The pair will need a serious rebound in risk sentiment if it wants to rally. If not the 2014 low should be tested. A break of that low likely accelerates the l-t slide and the door to the May 2010 low opens wider.

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