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USD Trading Outlook

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11th July

AUD/USD Europe added to losses from Asia as concerns about EZ banks had risk assets trading heavy. Bears pushed the pair to hourly support near 0.9355/60 and the pair sat just above that level as NY got going. It looked as if another run at the support would take hold in NY as US bond yields sank and JPY was bid across the board on safe haven bets. AUD/USD managed to hold above the 0.9361 low though. The pair then began a slow ascent after US stocks opened near their lows and steadily climbed while US bond yield took back much of their earlier losses. AUD/USD test s-t resistance ahead of the 200-HMA (0.9400) and hit a NY high of 0.9394. It sat near that level late in the day to leave the pair down near 0.25% on the day. Techs are flashing some warnings for recent longs. Daily RSI turns lower again, a bearish engulfing candle is in place on daily charts and a long upper wick forms on the weekly candle. With risk aversion upped we may see recent longs unwind going into the weekend. A test of key support in the 0.9320/40 zone may take hold. If that breaks the 200-DMA is the next bear target.

10th July

AUD/USD Tight ranges prevailed for Europe and most of NY. The pair held a 0.9390-0.9418 range for the most part as the mkt awaited the FOMC minutes. The Fed's tip to ending QE in October if econ conditions warrant it spiked the USD up. AUD/USD broke the range low & hit 0.9383 in no time. No follow through was seen though as the minutes made no note of when rates will rise. US yields and USD gave back their gains. AUD/USD then rallied to a new session high of 0.9425. Little pullback was seen and the pair sat just below the high late in the day. Traders now turn their attention to the June Oz jobs data and China trade figures. Should the results come in soft, the recent AUD/USD rise may come under pressure. A retest of the 0.9320/30 support zone might then be in the cards.

8th July

AUD/USD Overall USD weakness allowed AUD/USD's recovery off the Asia low to persist in Europe & NY. Action was limited though as NY walked in with the pair just below 0.9360. Steady pressure on the USD saw AUD/USD lift toward 0.9375. No further gains were possible though as NZD/USD's solid bounce recovery from Asia's 0.8714 low persisted in Europe & NY. This saw AUD/NZD trace below 1.0690 for a brief time in NY. This prevented AUD/USD from mounting any serious rally and aids to keep the 0.9320/30 support zone in play. Bears hope for a break of that support and an eventual test of the 200-DMA near 0.9200. Numerous data points this week may see bear's wishes come true. Tonight sees June NAB business conditions & confidence readings. The prior readings were -0.72 and 6.94 respectively. Westpac July consumer confidence is due tomorrow and the big June jobs report is due Thursday. If readings across the board are weak, AUD/USD has a good chance of breaking the support.

7th July

AUD/USD Europe didn't allow the pair to take back any losses after Stevens' comment and the weak Oz retail sales data. The Europe high was limited to 0.9383 and the pair sat just below that as NY got going. The big beat on the jobs report sent US yields and the USD soaring. AUD/USD collapsed, pierced the 55-DMA and in no time hit a new s-t trend low of 0.9327. Bears couldn't press further though as bids into the lows of June 6 & 18 were thick. US bond yields began giving back after the 10 year yield couldn't break the 200-DMA. AUD/USD lifted off the lows as bears lightened up into the long US weekend. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9350. Techs have turned bearish and more downside may be due. Day/week RSIs are biased down and a bearish engulfing candle forms on the weekly chart. Wider yield spreads bolster the bear view as well. If 0.9320 support breaks bears set their sights on the 0.9195/0.9210 area where the 200-DMA and lows from April & May sit.

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