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USD Trading Outlook

11.12.2014-8.12.2014 5.12.2014-1.12.2014 27.11.2014-24.11.2014 21.11.2014-17.11.2014 13.11.2014-10.11.2014 6.11.2014-4.11.2014 31.10.2014-27.10.2014 24.10.2014-20.10.2014 17.10.2014-13.10.2014 10.10.2014-8.10.2014 3.10.2014-29.9.2014 26.9.2014-22.9.2014 19.9.2014-15.9.2014 12.9.2014-8.9.2014 4.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013

20th June

AUD/USD Europe spiked the pair up and added to June 18 gains as US yields were slipping. AUD/USD ran up to 0.9432 before pulling back to 0.9415 into NY's open. Asian offers into 0.9440 aided to cap the rally. Early action in NY saw a tight range but the pair began to slide as US yields reversed some early losses and US stock markets swooned. A low of 0.9390 was hit but the pair sat just above 0.9400 late in the day as stock recovered a bit and yields pulled back from their highs. Bullish enthusiasm post-FOMC has been tempered today. The June 18 bullish engulfing candle saw only limited upside follow through today. Narrower yield spreads and ongoing concerns about Iraq seem to have dulled some of the shine post-FOMC. Some stops sit above 0.9440 but larger are touted above April's high. If bears can't assert themselves soon those stops are sure to attract.

19th June

AUD/USD Tight ranges dominated overnight and most of NY trade. The miss to the US C/A barely moved AUD/USD within of its 0.9327/47 o/n range. Action picked up quickly after the Fed. An initial spike lower in US yield due to lowered 2014 GDP forecasts from the Fed sent AUD/USD just above 0.9365. A rebound in yields then saw a new s-t trend low of 0.9322 hit. However, when it became clear the Fed wasn't going to drop any hawkish surprises on the mkt the USD turned heavy. AUD/USD made a steady ascent thereafter & lifted above 0.9400. Little pullback was seen and the pair sat just below the day's highs late in the session. The bounce off the daily cloud top & 55-DMA have bulls breath a sigh of relief. They now need to clear June's high to take control. They have work to do though as yield spreads don't reflect a bullish view. If 0.9440 isn't cleared soon a retest & break of 0.9320 could be due.

18th June

AUD/USD Local bids stymied Europe's bear run and a short covering lift took hold heading into NY's open. The pair sat near 0.9355 as NY. the lift persisted but halted at 0.9366. Offers near the 200 hour MA (0.9373) aided in capping gains. The above f/c US CPI saw AUD react worse than most major ccys as the market is now more sensitive to being long AUD after the somewhat dovish RBA minutes. Post-CPI AUD/USD dived down to a 0.9329low. A meager bounce saw the pair briefly above 0.9340 but US yields remained firm and so was the USD. AUD/USD was heavy in the afternoon and sat just above the day's low late in the day. Trader now look to the Fed for their next cue. Any hawkish hints from the FOMC should is likely to elicit a similar response to today's CPI reaction. Should the post-Fed reaction be similar, AUD/USD should clear support in the 0.9305/20 zone where the 21 & 55-DMAs, daily cloud top and June 6 low sit. If cleared a retest of big support near 0.9200/10 is likely.

17th June

The Australian Dollar (AUD): Size orders in the 0.9430/40 met buyers in early Europe. A sharp rise in US yield then saw AUD/USD slammed towards 0.9380. It sat nearby as NY got going. Above f/c US data and a short covering rally in EUR/AUD up near 1.4465 pushed AUD/USD to a low of 0.9372. A bounce to 0.9405 ensued as US yields gave back early gain but further gains were not to be seen. Action settled quickly & the pair sat just above 0.9400 for the remainder of NY's afternoon. AUD longs could be getting nervous. The pair has struggled to hold ground above 0.9400 since April. Adding to bulls concerns are day/week RSIs rolling over from near o/b territory, narrowing yield spreads and new 2014 lows set for iron ore & rebar. The RBA's Kent noted AUD he wouldn't be surprised if AUD fell and stated he thinks it is high given the fall in commodity prices. A test of 0.9305/20 (21 & 55-DMAs, daily cloud top, June 6 low) support may be due. If it breaks it's likely key support near 0.9200 will be tested again.

16th June

AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.936.



Our preference

Long positions above 0.936 with targets @ 0.9435 & 0.946 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 0.936 look for further downside with 0.9335 & 0.9315 as targets.


The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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