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USD Trading Outlook

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12th September

AUD/USD Europe managed to erase all the post-Oz jobs gains as traders focus more on the soft China and the underlying USD bid due to fears of a more hawkish Fed coming down the pike. Bears pushed the pair towards 0.9120 into NY's open. NY saw an early dip below 0.9110 rebuffed as weekly jobless claims come in above expectations. The USD softened a bit and AUD/USD rallied near 0.9140. The USD regained its footings though and AUD/USD began sliding again. Leveraged and system names out of NY were steady seller and too on importer bids into 0.9100. The bids held for a while but eventually broke and the pair hit 0.9096. A profit taking bounce into Europe's close saw the pair near 0.9120 but sellers took hold again and the pair went on to make a new low of 0.9093. The pair sat just above 0.9100 late in the session to keep touted 0.9090 and 0.9070 stops in play for the Asian session. If pressure persists support comes in near the 50% Fib of 0.8660-0.9505 which sits 0.9083 and then further support sits near 0.9050 where option related bids are touted.

11th September

AUD/USD Early Europe saw bears push the pair to a new s-t trend low of 0.9113. Bids ahead of 0.9100 (likely barrier) prevented further losses & light profit taking had the pair near 0.9145 as NY got going. A small dip in early NY met short covering and the pair steadily climbed towards 0.9170. Aiding the rise was broad base EUR sales that saw EUR/AUD slide towards 1.4175/80 support. Late in the day AUD/USD say near 0.9165 as the 200-DMA and 38.2 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505 loomed. The market now awaits the August AU jobs data. Both the employment & U. rate data are f/c to improve. Should the data surprise to the downside bears will emerge and take the pair towards 50 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505. An inline or slight better than f/c number may see only a limited rally as the mkt feels the recent USD still has legs and AUD needs to play catch up to other currencies that bore the brunt of USD strength.

10th September

AUD/USD opened on Tuesday at 0.9283 and traded a moderate 0.9253-88 range in Asia; last at 0.9264. AUD/USD after falling 1.0% on Monday and closing in NY just off its low continued to struggle in Asia. AUD/USD saw some light exporter buying interest during the morning session before softer than previous NAB Business Confidence data pushed the pair to a session low of 0.9373. That low proved short lived once USD/JPY burst through 106.25. AUD/USD followed in kind making a fresh intraday low of 0.9253 after light stops were tripped below 0.9260. The bounce so far has been anemic so look for a test of key support around 0.9230/40 during the London session. There were plenty of reasons put forward this morning to substantiate the overnight moves but it seems more simply a continuation of broad based US Dollar strength. AUD/USD played catch-up after being left reasonably unscathed last week. The leveraged and real money crowd had the last laugh overnight denting the AUD's seemingly 'Teflon" coating. AUD is now also under pressure on the crosses with EUR, GBP and NZD set to regain some lost ground.

9th September

AUD/USD The pair came under pressure in Europe's morning and that pressure remained throughout NY. The pair sat near 0.9345 into NY's open and was hit right out of the gate. the USD was generally firm and commodities were heavy for the most part. AUD/USD pierced the 100-DMA and 200-HMA before briefly pausing only briefly ahead of the Sep 4 daily low at 0.9330. The USD's rally picked up the pace after USD/JPY broke above 105.30. AUD/USD's slide resumed and accelerated as US yields sprang to life and USD/JPY broke above 106.00. AUD/USD hit a low of 0.9279 but saw virtually no bounce. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9285. There is little major data overnight but traders may see AUD impacted by NAB's Aug. business confidence & conditions report. Soft readings may see AUD/USD's slide persist as market positioning remains net-long AUD. Support sits at daily lows near 0.9263 and 0.9235. If those give way a test of key 0.9180/0.9203 (200-DMA, 38.2 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505, May low) is likely.

8th September

AUD/USD Europe bought a dip from Asia's high. Buyers emerged at s-t support near 0.9330 and they lifted the pair to have it near 0.9345 into NY's open. NY pushed the lift further after the ECB cut rates. EUR/AUD dived from above 1.4060 to sub-1.3950 levels. Draghi's presser added more pressure to the cross and sub-1.3850 levels were hit. This price action saw AUD/USD driven up to a new high of 0.9393. EUR/AUD's slide pressed a bit further and neared 1.3802 with it eventually settling near 1.3835. AUD/USD was unable to benefit though as above f/c US non-Mfg ISM rallied US bond yields and the USD. A steady drift lower took hold and most of NY's gains were erased as 0.9343 was hit. Little bounce was seen as US equity mkts turned heavy. AUD/USD sat below the 55-DMA and daily cloud base and near 0.9350 late in the day. The US jobs report is now the main focus. The NFP and unemployment rate are expected to improve. Should they beat substantially AUD/USD is likely to trade heavy and today's 0.9393 high may denote a short-term high for the pair.

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