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USD Trading Outlook

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15th August

AUD/USD The USD was generally soft in Europe but AUD/USD seemed to only grudgingly climb higher. The pair lifted from near 0.9300 to just above 0.9320 before pulling back near 0.9315 into NY's open. The pace of the ascent may have been influenced by another soft day for commodity prices. NY made their own try at taking out structural resistance in the 0.9330/40 area after the softer than expected jobless claims. Bulls could only manage a 0.9328 high though as Asian sellers near 0.9330 prevented further gains. A rebound for the USD then saw the pair slip from the highs and it sat near 0.9315 late in the day. While the long-term trend remains down, bulls have the edge short term. Daily & weekly RSIs provide positive momentum for now and yield spreads are neutral. The 0.9330/40 resistance may get tested again. If it break the next hurdle for bulls is 0.9354/76 where the daily cloud base, 55-DMA and August 6 high sit.

14th August

AUD/USD A steady drift up took hold in Europe after the August Westpac confidence data improved. The ascent had AUD/USD near 0.9295 into NY's open. It held steady near that level in US retail sales. The sales report had no redeeming qualities and the USD dived lower across the board. AUD/USD rallied to a 0.9320 high. Offer touted in the 0.9320/30 area halted the rise. Much of the USD losses post-sale were erased in EUR/USD and USD/JPY. This aided to push AUD/USD away from the high and it steadily drifted lower fro the remainder of the session. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9305.There is little data in Asia's session to drive the pair so traders will look to EZ GDP and US weekly claims data for their next cue. For now the recent down trend remain intact. The T-L off the April 2013 high is formidable and the pair continues to hold below the daily cloud and 55-DMA. Only above the 0.9475/80 area will the recent drop be put in doubt.

13th August

AUD/USD The pair spent most of NY near the top end of the day's 0.9248-0.9278 range. The combination of improved AU econ data, wider yield spreads and a soft USD allowed the pair to linger just under 0.9280 for almost the entire NY session. The pair seems to be entering a consolidation phase that allows it to digest recent losses. This phase will also allow near o/s daily RSI to unwind ahead of the next leg lower. Westpac August consumer confidence data is due later. If the reading mimics the NAB business confidence data AUD/USD may get another boost and clear offers in the 0.9285/95 area. The longer-term trend remains bearish though and bulls will need to clear 0.9354/76 (daily cloud base, 55-DMA, Aug 6 high) to dent the recent slide. A clean break above the TL off the April 2013 high is needed to seriously threaten the bear trend.

12th August

AUD/USD Although the market was generally subdued, AUD/USD's downside remained in focus. The pair remained under pressure for the NY session as the USD was firm and US bond yields were up early in the day. The pair slid to a low of 0.9259 and held near that level late in the day even as US bond yields gave up their early gains. Bids touted ahead of the August 8th low aided to keep bears in check. Traders are now on the alert for data risk in the Asian session. Oz Q2 housing data (1.1% f/c vs prior 2%) and the NAB July Business Conditions (prior 2.3) & Confidence (prior 7.9) are due. Soft results should keep AUD/USD under pressure and last week's low might be cleared. If the downside progresses the big 0.9179/0.9203 (200-DMA, 38.2 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505, May low) support zone is in play. A break of that support should see the recent slide accelerate. Wednesday's US retail sales data might be the catalyst to do that.

11th August

AUD/USD Europe lifted the pair off Asia's low as the sour risk sentiment from the air strike new and SOMP faded. The pair lifted from the 0.9240 area and sat just above 0.9270 into NY's open. The shift in risk sentiment carried over to NY and saw AUD/USD lift to a 0.9288 high but the pair couldn't get the full benefit of the improved sentiment. EUR short covering saw EUR/AUD lift from 1.4420 towards 1.4480 and USD/JPY lifted towards 102.10. This combination kept AUD/USD from making further gains. Late in the day AUD/USD sat near 0.9275. the longer-term trend remains bearish but the doji formed August 8 may lead to a squeeze. Traders look to next week's AU July NAB business confidence, Q2 house prices and August consumer sentiment releases for the next cues. Should the results come in soft they will bolster the RBA's SOMP lowered growth outlook and may see AUD weighed upon again.

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