USD Trading Outlook
AUD/USD Spec offers ahead of the daily cloud top and talk of Asian offers in the 0.9300 area stymied the post-China inspires AUD/USD rally. Bears in Europe jumped on the chance to sell and lowered the pair from 0.9274 towards 0.9240 into NY's open. Early NY action was mixed but a slight bounce took hold after above f/c jobless claim and below f/c US housing data. With the lift being very limited bears took hold again as the USD was firm on rising US yields. AUD/USD slid below the pre-PMI levels & hit a low of 0.9214. No further losses were made though as exporter bids and barrier protection ahead of 0.9200 was too much for bears to contend with. The pair sat just above the low late in the session. With nearly all of the May 21 bounce erased it looks like a break of 0.9200 is only a matter of time. Good stops are reported below that level and if run 0.9170/75 support (200-DMA, channel base, daily cloud base) is the first support to overcome. Beyond that there is little support until the 0.9050 area.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair was under pressure as US yields put the dollar on solid footings and it traded to a new trend low of 0.9208. Post minutes saw another spike up on USD but gains were quickly erased as US yield pulled back and AUD tested hourly resistance by 0.9240. Little pullback were seen. For today, the major risks event will be inflation expectation and China HSBC PMI due at 01:00GMT & 01:45GMT.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Early Europe stop loss run through 0.9290 accelerated the drop on the pair after RBA minutes/Debelle comments also inspired the slide. A dip below 0.9250/60 was seen but bounce was only limited to 0.9270-75 area. Hawkish comments from Fed Plosser saw the 55-day MA pierced and a new low of 0.9241 was hit. Westpac consumer sentiment will be the main event for the AUD and May BOJ interest rate/MPS are the big event risks for Asia.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Europe made two attempts to trade the pair below 0.9345 but failed and bounced to 0.9355 as NY walked in. NY pressed the pair higher to test hourly resistance near 0.9365/70 but was unable to push further. S&P warned that Australia's AAA rating could be at risk unless substantial budget cuts are made in coming years, made the AUD dived down to a low of 0.9326. Concerns in iron ore's break low from 103.70/105 support and t-l support off the 2009 low added pressure to the AUD. RBA minute is due later & little surprises are expected.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The 21-DMA and local bid once again held the pair on the downside. EUR/AUD's rally reversed at 1.4700 and AUD/NZD's lift off 1.0820 towards 1.0850/55, saw the pair bounced from 0.9335 to 0.9365. A better than f/c U.S housing data only managed to push the pair to around 0.9355 and no further losses were seen. Limited data for this week therefore, impact on the pair is more likely to come from crosses again.
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