USD Trading Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The AUD traded lower with the broader sell off in emerging and high beta currencies. U.S Durable data was relatively good, keeping the USD upside bias. The AUD only managed to touch 0.9300-05 area and dropped back down to a low of 0.9251. Relative quiet day for the AUD and NZD as its a public holiday, therefore, most of the movements for today on this pair would be from USD strength/weakness.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair did not manage to bounce back much after the CPI drop. Bears are encouraged by the Aus forward short rates, which continued to grind lower despite the recent concern about inflation. However, investors should also take into account the fact RBA did say to keep rates steady for awhile therefore, next RBA meeting should bring a lot of attention on whether Governor Steven will act on this poor CPI data.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Under a quiet session yesterday, the AUD had been trading on either side of the 200 HMA. Market awaits for Q1 CPI and the HSBC China PMI. Bulls remains strong as the pair crossed upward to the 40 and 200 day moving averages while bears are still waiting for RBA to express some concerns on the current level of the currency. Either way, we would expect the CPI numbers to generate more debate and possibly force the RBA to act.
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The AUD managed to slightly push itself back up after being pressured by 1.5% drop in Shanghai on Monday. The key data for this week on the AUD will be the Q1 CPI (3.2% f/c vs 2.7% prev). Even though a large upstick is expected, short term forward rates are counter-intuitively grinding lower and is worthy of a yellow cautionary flag with regard to this latest bullish run.
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