USD Trading Outlook

2.9.2014-1.9.2014 29.8.2014-25.8.2014 22.8.2014-18.8.2014 15.8.2014-11.8.2014 8.8.2014-4.8.2014 1.8.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012

18th October

The USD has been heavily sold across the board after the temporary resolution to the debt-ceiling impasse showed the market that another similar situation will arise early next year. AUD/USD broke above barrier protection at .9600 and seems likely to test technical resistance levels above 97 cents. Today sees a speech from RBA Governor Stevens as well as Chinese GDP on the economic calendar. Given the events of the last 24 hours, I think we can expect a lively session with downward pressure on the USD set to continue.

17th October

It looks like an agreement has been reached on increasing the US debt ceiling and this deal is currently being voted on. The AUD has remained very well supported as ‘risk-on’ trades look to be the order of the day. AUD/JPY is trading at recent trend highs and just below important technical resistance whilst AUD/USD has taken out one barrier near .9550, although another bigger one looms at .9600. The economic calendar is again very bare and unfortunately we may be in for yet another very quiet session.

16th October

The AUD has remained quite active on the crosses over the last 24 hours as we wait for a debt-deal announcement out of Washington. Yesterday’s RBA meeting minutes suggested that a rate cut might still be possible but there is no rush, and this caused the AUD to rally across the board. Heavy topside option barriers in the AUD/USD stalled the bullish momentum. Not much of note on today’s economic calendar so we sit and wait for the US.

15th October

Yet more meetings in the White House have raised expectations that some announcement regarding an end to the debt-deal impasse might soon happen. The AUD/USD spiked higher above .9500, which had more to do with dealers breaking through an option barrier rather than any reaction to events in Washington. The latest RBA meeting minutes will be released today but all eyes and ears will be on the White House for any sign of a deal.

14th October

The AUD has opened lower in Asia after much poorer than expected China trade data which was released over the weekend. The market had expected a 6.0% YoY increase but got a fall of 0.3% YoY instead. The AUD/USD has ‘only’ fallen by 50 pips on the back of this which suggests that the market is not long and there are not very many stops on the downside. The talks in Washington regarding a solution to their debt-ceiling impasse keep dragging on and this will also weigh on risk trades and of course on the USD. Chinese CPI data is the highlight of today’s economic calendar.

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