USD Trading Outlook


 
31.7.2014-28.7.2014 25.7.2014-21.7.2014 18.7.2014-14.7.2014 11.7.2014-7.7.2014 3.7.2014-30.6.2014 27.6.2014-23.6.2014 20.6.2014-16.6.2014 13.6.2014-10.6.2014 4.6.2014-2.6.2014 28.5.2014-26.5.2014 23.5.2014-19.5.2014 16.5.2014-12.5.2014 9.5.2014-5.5.2014 2.5.2014-28.4.2014 25.4.2014-22.4.2014 18.4.2014-14.4.2014 11.4.2014-7.4.2014 4.4.2014-31.3.2014 28.3.2014-24.3.2014 21.3.2014-17.3.2014 14.3.2014-10.3.2014 6.3.2014-3.3.2014 28.2.2014-24.2.2014 21.2.2014-17.2.2014 14.2.2014-10.2.2014 7.2.2014-3.2.2014 31.1.2014-27.1.2014 24.1.2014-20.1.2014 17.1.2014-14.1.2014 8.1.2014-8.1.2014 3.1.2014-23.12.2013 19.12.2013-16.12.2013 13.12.2013-9.12.2013 6.12.2013-2.12.2013 29.11.2013-25.11.2013 22.11.2013-20.11.2013 1.11.2013-28.10.2013 25.10.2013-21.10.2013 18.10.2013-14.10.2013 11.10.2013-7.10.2013 2.10.2013-30.9.2013 27.9.2013-16.9.2013 13.9.2013-11.9.2013 23.8.2013-12.8.2013 9.8.2013-5.8.2013 30.7.2013-29.7.2013 25.7.2013-22.7.2013 18.7.2013-15.7.2013 12.7.2013-9.7.2013 28.6.2013-24.6.2013 21.6.2013-19.6.2013 7.6.2013-3.6.2013 31.5.2013-28.5.2013 23.5.2013-20.5.2013 17.5.2013-14.5.2013 10.5.2013-6.5.2013 2.5.2013-30.4.2013 26.4.2013-22.4.2013 16.4.2013-16.4.2013 10.4.2013-25.3.2013 21.3.2013-19.3.2013 15.3.2013-11.3.2013 7.3.2013-4.3.2013 1.3.2013-25.2.2013 22.2.2013-18.2.2013 15.2.2013-12.2.2013 8.2.2013-4.2.2013 1.2.2013-28.1.2013 25.1.2013-21.1.2013 18.1.2013-14.1.2013 11.1.2013-7.1.2013 4.1.2013-2.1.2013 27.12.2012-18.12.2012 12.12.2012-10.12.2012 7.12.2012-26.11.2012 22.11.2012-12.11.2012 9.11.2012-5.11.2012 2.11.2012-29.10.2012 26.10.2012-22.10.2012 19.10.2012-15.10.2012 12.10.2012-8.10.2012 5.10.2012-1.10.2012 28.9.2012-24.9.2012 21.9.2012-17.9.2012 14.9.2012-10.9.2012 7.9.2012-3.9.2012 31.8.2012-27.8.2012

23th August

Emerging markets finally settled down last night but not before the Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira made new lows against the USD. The AUD/USD managed also to stabilise around the .9000 mark, mainly due to heavy AUD/JPY buying by Japanese retail players. If the panic selling in EMs calms down, then we should see the AUD/USD start to recover some lost ground. If the taper-inspired flight out of EMs continues, then the AUD/USD will soon be testing .8850. Traders will be watching the newswires carefully for any comments from the Jackson Hole Symposium but with most of the big central bank leaders missing, it’s unlikely to be too controversial.

20th August

The AUD bulls were driven back by heavy selling in AUD/USD near .9230 and in EUR/AUD near 1.4450. I’m still strongly of the opinion that we are in a consolidation phase for the AUD against most of the other majors and this will remain until the general election. Today’s main risk event will be the RBA minutes from the last meeting. I’d expect most of the action to be in the crosses once again and we can look to metals and equity markets for leads. 

19th August

It’s been a quiet start to the trading week with the AUD/USD sitting quietly near .9185. There are opposing factors at play in the AUD market; rising US yields and falling global equity markets are AUD-negative but sharp rises in metals markets and a steadying of Chinese economic data are AUD-positive signals. The fact remains that the AUD market is still very short and unless some very bad news happens prior to the general election we are likely to see this period of .90/.93 consolidation continue with definite top-side risk. There is nothing of note on today’s economic calendar. 

12th August

The AUD has started to unwind some of its over-sold technical and positional tendencies. There have been some decent gains made against all of the other majors but with resistance levels looming against the USD. JPY and EUR, the easy short-term money has probably been already made. Overall I like the idea of being long AUD/USD but we could easily see a re-test of levels near .9000 before more topside develops. Not much on today’s economic calendar so it will again be all about positioning. 


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